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Michigan football’s record projection rises as ESPN FPI, SP+ rankings soar

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome4 hours agoanthonytbroome
NCAA Football: Central Michigan at Michigan
Sep 13, 2025; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA; Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) and wide receiver Andrew Marsh (4) celebrate a touchdown in the first half against the Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The Michigan Wolverines closed out their non-conference slate on a high note Saturday, demolishing Central Michigan 63-3 in Ann Arbor. It was enough to prompt major changes to the ESPN computers after the Week 3 slate of games.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with an 8.4-3.8 record and sitting at No. 10 overall nationally, surging 19 spots from last week after the loss at Oklahoma. The Wolverines were 15th heading into the season.

The win-loss projection falls in line with preseason expectations, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 6 of its 9 remaining games this season, with only the road games at Nebraska this weekend (49.7%) at USC on Oct. 11 (25.7%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (40.2%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 3 update, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L8.4-3.8
Win Out Percentage1.1%
6-Plus Wins98.8%
Win Division (N/A)0.0%
Win Conference5.6%
Playoffs20.3%
Make National Championship3.1%
Win National Championship1.4%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 85 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 13 Oklahoma: 24-13 (1-1)
Sept. 13 vs. No. 130 Central Michigan: 63-3 W (2-1)
Sept. 20 at No. 17 Nebraska: 49.7% chance of victory
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 45 Wisconsin: 83.2% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 5 USC: 25.7% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 29 Washington: 79.5% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 69 Michigan State: 86.4% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 79 Purdue: 93.6% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 76 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 90.6% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 60 Maryland: 82.4% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 2 Ohio State: 40.2% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 8.4-3.8

Michigan gets an SP+ update, too

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric has Michigan in its No. 18 spot after the weekend of action, up 7 spots from last week.

What is SP+?

“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008,” Connelly writes. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does.”

Michigan’s offensive SP+ is at 46th (30.5) with its defense sitting in 4th (13.3). On special teams, U-M ranks 33rd (0.1).

Next up for Michigan is its trip to Nebraska, set for Saturday at 3:30 p.m. on CBS. The Wolverines are a 1.5-point favorite, per BetMGM.