Michigan football’s record projection rises in ESPN FPI, SP+ update

The Michigan Wolverines moved to 3-1 over the weekend with a 30-20 win at Nebraska on Saturday. Heading into their first bye week, the ESPN computers have updated where U-M stands among the rest of the country.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with a 9.0-3.3 record and sitting at No. 12 overall nationally, falling two spots from last week’s rankings. The Wolverines were 15th heading into the season.

The win-loss projection more or less falls in line with preseason expectations, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 6 of its 8 remaining games this season, with only the road game at USC on Oct. 11 (30.4%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (42.3%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 4 update, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L	9.0-3.3
Win Out Percentage	2.7%
6-Plus Wins	99.8%
Win Division (N/A)	0.0%
Win Conference	11.9%
Playoffs	32.1%
Make National Championship	5.1%
Win National Championship	2.3%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 82 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 17 Oklahoma: 24-13 (1-1)
Sept. 13 vs. No. 129 Central Michigan: 63-3 W (2-1)
Sept. 20 at No. 21 Nebraska: 30-27 W (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten)
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 55 Wisconsin: 89.0% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 8 USC: 30.4% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 24 Washington: 74.1% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 61 Michigan State: 85.0% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 76 Purdue: 94.1% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 78 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 92.1% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 48 Maryland: 78.6% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 2 Ohio State: 42.3% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 9.0-3.3

Michigan gets an SP+ update, too

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric has Michigan in its No. 17 spot after the weekend of action, up 1 spots from last week.

What is SP+?

“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008,” Connelly writes. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does.”

Michigan’s offensive SP+ is at 39th (32.2) with its defense sitting in 9th (14.8). On special teams, U-M ranks 50th (0.1).