Michigan football record projection, SP+ outlook update following Week 6

The Michigan Wolverines have moved to 4-1 with the win over Wisconsin on Saturday, and now the ESPN computers have updated their outlook for the rest of the year.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with a 9.0-3.3 record and sitting at No. 12 overall nationally, the same as they were in last week’s rankings. The Wolverines were 15th heading into the season.

The win-loss projection more or less falls in line with preseason expectations, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 5 of its 7 remaining games this season, with only the road game at USC on Oct. 11 (31.5%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (33.8%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 6 update, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L	9.0-3.3
Win Out Percentage	2.1%
6-Plus Wins	99.9%
Win Division (N/A)	0.0%
Win Conference	8.1%
Playoffs	31.7%
Make National Championship	4.1%
Win National Championship	1.7%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 83 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 15 Oklahoma: 24-13 (1-1)
Sept. 13 vs. No. 126 Central Michigan: 63-3 W (2-1)
Sept. 20 at No. 22 Nebraska: 30-27 W (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten)
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 54 Wisconsin: 24-10 W (4-1, 2-0 Big Ten)
Oct. 11 at No. 10 USC: 31.5% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 27 Washington: 78.5% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 61 Michigan State: 84.3% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 70 Purdue: 93.4% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 67 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 88.9% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 53 Maryland: 79.1% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 1 Ohio State: 33.8% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 9.0-3.3

Michigan gets an SP+ update, too

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric has Michigan in its No. 15 spot, matching where the AP Poll has them ranked heading into the USC game. They are up two spots from last week’s rankings.

What is SP+?

“In a single sentence, it’s a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008,” Connelly writes. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking (hence the lack of unbeatens near the top), so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling — no good predictive system does.”

Michigan’s offensive SP+ is at 32nd (31.7) with its defense sitting in 7th (11.9). On special teams, U-M ranks 64th (0.0).