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Michigan football updated record prediction, game-by-game chances via ESPN FPI

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome4 hours agoanthonytbroome
Bryce Underwood, Sherrone Moore, Michigan
© Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Michigan Wolverines moved to 1-0 last weekend with a 34-17 win in the season opener over New Mexico, and now the ESPN computers have updated their game-by-game outlook.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with an 8.0-4.0 record and sitting at No. 20 overall nationally, falling five spots from last week. The win-loss projection falls below the preseason expectation, with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM ahead of 2025.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 8 of its 11 games this season, with only the road games at Oklahoma (46.5%) this weekend, at USC on Oct. 11 (18.1%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (29.2%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After a Week 1 update, which can be taken with a grain of salt given Texas remains at No. 1 in their computers, here is a breakdown of Michigan’s numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L8.0-4.0
Win Out Percentage0.1%
6-Plus Wins96.2%
Win Division (N/A)0.0%
Win Conference2.5%
Playoffs16.9%
Make National Championship1.4%
Win National Championship0.5%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 113 New Mexico: 34-17 W (1-0)
Sept. 6 at No. 22 Oklahoma: 46.5% chance of victory
Sept. 13 vs. No. 114 Central Michigan: 95.5% chance of victory
Sept. 20 at No. 31 Nebraska: 54.1% chance of victory
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 35 Wisconsin: 70.6% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 6 USC: 18.1% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 32 Washington: 72.0% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 64 Michigan State: 75.3% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 70 Purdue: 89.2% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 75 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 83.9% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 56 Maryland: 68.5% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 3 Ohio State: 29.2% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 8.0-4.0

The road ahead for the Wolverines

Michigan and Oklahoma do battle on Saturday night as the game of the week in college football. The two storied programs have met only once on the gridiron, a 14-6 Sooner victory in the 1975 Orange Bowl. Saturday’s game will also be a homecoming of sorts for head coach Sherrone Moore, who went to Oklahoma and played offensive line from 2006-07.

Saturday’s game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. on ABC. ESPN’s College GameDay will also be live from the Norman in the morning. The trip down to Oklahoma will be the first road game U-M has played against an SEC opponent.

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