What they're saying about Michigan's College Football Playoff chances ahead of Maryland game

No. 18 Michigan Wolverines football will clash with Maryland Saturday evening in College Park. Here’s a look around the internet at what they’re saying before kickoff.

Bob Wojnowski, The Detroit News: Wojo’s Pigskin Picks: Wolverines struggling? Ha! Spartans say, hold my beer

Ohhh the stodgy offense, the sloppy execution, the NCAA sanctions. Where’s the discipline, the direction? When will someone lead this program back to Big Ten prominence?!

Yep, it sure is rough these days for Michigan fans, watching their team churn toward the inevitable outcome in the season finale. It could be worse, of course, than nearly losing to Northwestern and nearly losing to Purdue and nearly losing to Nebraska. It could be worse than being 8-2 and in title contention, even if nobody fully buys it.

This is about perspective and expectations, and how Michigan fans lack the former and get drunk on the latter. If they took a moment to relax and reflect, they might consider their tattered siblings in East Lansing. The 3-7 Spartans may be drunk on something, but they currently lack perspective, expectations, money, victories, first downs and large young men capable of blocking other large young men.

College football is a messy microcosm of society. Nobody’s happy with what they have, so they spend their lives ranting about five turnovers and who cares if they won the $%*%$#@ game anyway??!! Apparently, the only crime worse than losing to a rival is beating Northwestern 24-22 and Purdue 21-16.

Shockingly, Michigan somehow is not the same powerhouse it was under the maniacal Jim Harbaugh, when they won so many championships, they finally had to send Harbaugh away to give someone else a chance. Sherrone Moore was a part of those championships, yet for some reason he hasn’t won his own in nearly TWO FULL YEARS as head coach. Unacceptable!

David Hale, ESPN: Week 13 Anger Index: The case for Alabama to be ranked higher

4. Michigan Wolverines (8-2, No. 18)
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.

Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 20, next vs. No. 30. Losses to SP+ Nos. 12 and 13 by a combined 29 points. No. 14 strength of record.

Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 37, next vs. No. 51. Losses to SP+ Nos. 3 and 17 by a combined 27 points. No. 18 strength of record.

Who’s better?

Both have understandable losses. Neither has an elite win, but clearly Team A has beaten better teams. Neither exactly looks like playoff material at the moment, but Team A, for what it’s worth, still has a monster opportunity on the horizon.

OK, you’ve probably guessed Team A is Michigan. Team B is Utah, ranked six spots higher.

If anything, Utah’s spot in the rankings is confounding — ahead of Miami, USC and Vanderbilt, all with markedly better wins. But the frustration for the Wolverines is that they have a shot to knock off Ohio State again this year, and even if they do, the end result probably will look just like 2024. The Buckeyes will still cruise into the playoff, and Michigan — despite being far better than a year ago — doesn’t have much of a shot.

If Michigan was hovering around the No. 12 or 13 spot, there’s a path — with a win over Ohio State — to a playoff berth. At 18? Not likely, even if they beat the Buckeyes by 40. Instead, all they’ll be left with is a trip to the Music City Bowl and a long offseason, sipping on the tears of Ohio State fans everywhere. It’s hardly fair.

Bill Connelly, ESPN: College football Week 13 preview: USC-Oregon, Missouri-Oklahoma

If Michigan wins its last two games, the Wolverines could give the CFP committee a giant headache. At 18th, they need some help to move into playoff positioning, but a win over top-ranked Ohio State would be an enormous boost (and might sneak them into the Big Ten championship game).

One issue: How many times have they actually looked like a playoff team this year? Twice? They were certainly impressive in the 63-3 win over Central Michigan, and manhandling Washington 24-7 in mid-October was excellent, but they’ve underachieved against projections in five of the past six games. Maryland has been outscored by an average of 38-12 in November, but it’s probably time for Michigan to start looking the part, and potentially in rainy conditions.

Heather Dinich, ESPN: College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble Watch after Week 12

Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.

Austin Meek, The Athletic: Is Michigan a Playoff lock if it beats Maryland, upsets Ohio State? Here’s what we know

CFP implactions
Around Ann Arbor, it’s widely assumed that Michigan will make the CFP if the Wolverines beat Maryland and Ohio State. But … are we sure about that?

The Athletic’s model has Michigan’s Playoff chances at 5 percent, reflecting Michigan’s underdog status against Ohio State on Nov. 29. Even if the Wolverines win their next two games, the model projects them in the CFP field only 35 percent of the time.

Now, some caveats. A lot can change with the teams in front of Michigan in the CFP rankings. It’s also hard to predict how the CFP committee, a group of human beings, would respond to another Michigan upset against Ohio State. Handing the No. 1 team its first loss is the kind of thing that could cause the committee to radically shift its thinking. Michigan will have recency bias working in its favor, and if you believe brands matter at all, the Wolverines could get a subconscious bump from some in the room.

Even if the model is underrating Michigan’s odds a bit, the Wolverines aren’t a sure thing at 10-2. As of now, Michigan’s best wins came against 7-3 Washington and 7-3 Nebraska, neither of which is ranked in the CFP Top 25. Michigan’s two losses came on the road against No. 8 Oklahoma and No. 15 USC. There’s not a lot, good or bad, to separate Michigan from the clump of two-loss teams.