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Michigan football's FPI outlook, record projection updated after Week 1

Anthony Broomeby: Anthony Broome09/02/24anthonytbroome
Syndication: Detroit Free Press
Michigan celebrates the touchdown by running back Donovan Edwards (7) during the 1st quarter against Fresno State at Michigan Stadium at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024. (USA Today Syndication)

The Michigan Wolverines moved to 1-0 on the year with a 30-10 win over Fresno State on Saturday in a shaky showing that finished strong. But was there a tangible analytic impact on it?

ESPN’s Football Power Index has Michigan finishing the year with an 8.3-3.9 record this season, falling two spots to the metric’s No. 14 team in the country. It plays the No. 3 team in the FPI on Saturday with the Texas Longhorns coming to town. The Wolverines came into the year as the metric’s No. 12 team nationally.

A few other FPI numbers of note is a 7.3% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 23.4% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff and a 2.6% chance of making the national championship game. Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 9 of its 11 remaining games, according to FPI. The exceptions are Texas (26.2%) this weekend and Ohio State (22.3%) on Nov. 30 to end the regular season.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After this week’s update, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Michigan football’s updated FPI outlook and win projections

RankProj. W-LWin Out%6+ Wins%Win Conf.%Playoffs%Make NC%Win NC%
148.3-3.90.4%94.0%7.3%23.4%2.6%0.9%

Aug. 31 vs. Fresno State (FPI rank: 75th): 30-10 W
Sept. 7 vs. Texas (3rd): 26.2% chance of victory
Sept. 14 vs. Arkansas St. (103rd): 94.3% chance of victory
Sept. 21 vs. USC (15th): 57.9% chance of victory
Sept. 28 vs. Minnesota (61st): 83.5% chance of victory
Oct. 5 at Washington (26th): 52.6% chance of victory
Oct. 19 at Illinois (52nd): 76.3% chance of victory
Oct. 26 vs. Michigan State (79th): 88.4% chance of victory
Nov. 2 vs. Oregon (10th): 55.1% chance of victory
Nov. 9 at Indiana (73rd): 80.3% chance of victory
Nov. 23 vs. Northwestern (67th): 86.8% chance of victory
Nov. 30 at Ohio State (4th): 22.3% chance of victory

What’s next for the Wolverines?

Texas comes to Ann Arbor this weekend for a 12 p.m. ET kickoff on Saturday afternoon as part of FOX’s Big Noon Saturday coverage. The Longhorns are listed as 5.5-point favorites with the over/under for total points scored at 49.5.

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