Michigan FPI update: ESPN metric predicts 2025 record, outlook

The Michigan Wolverines head into the 2025 season looking to bounce back from an 8-5 campaign last season under head coach Sherrone Moore.

Moore and the Wolverines started rocky but ended last year on a high note, and now expectations are raised in Ann Arbor. ESPN’s Football Power Index has the Wolverines finishing the year with an 8.8-3.4 record and sitting at No. 15 overall nationally. The win-loss projection lines up with the over/under line set at 8.5 wins by BetMGM.

A few other FPI numbers of note are a 7.2% chance of winning the Big Ten, a 29.3% chance of making the 12-team College Football Playoff, a 3.2% chance of making the national championship game and a 1.2% chance of winning it all.

Michigan has a better than 50% chance of victory in 10 of its 12 games this season, with only the road game at USC on Oct. 11 (34.7%) and the season finale vs. Ohio State (36.9%) as projected losses.

So what exactly is FPI?

“FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward,” ESPN explains. “The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 134; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI.”

After the Week 0 update, which only provided marginal updates given a small slate of games, here’s the breakdown of the numbers and win percentages.

Projected W-L	8.8-3.4
Win Out Percentage	0.6%
6-Plus Wins	99.0%
Win Division (N/A)	0.0%
Win Conference	7.2%
Playoffs	29.3%
Make National Championship	3.2%
Win National Championship	1.2%

Michigan football game-by-game FPI predictions

Aug. 30 vs. No. 121 New Mexico: 97.5% chance of victory
Sept. 6 at No. 19 Oklahoma: 51.8% chance of victory
Sept. 13 vs. No. 120 Central Michigan: 97.0% chance of victory
Sept. 20 at No. 29 Nebraska: 59.0% chance of victory
Sept 27: BYE
Oct. 4 vs. No. 40 Wisconsin: 76.9% chance of victory
Oct. 11 at No. 14 USC: 34.7% chance of victory
Oct. 18 vs. No. 33 Washington: 78.2% chance of victory
Oct. 25 at No. 59 Michigan State: 79.7% chance of victory
Nov. 1 vs. No. 96 Purdue: 94.6% chance of victory
Nov. 8: BYE
Nov. 15 at No. 64 Northwestern (Wrigley Field): 82.9% chance of victory
Nov. 22 at No. 61 Maryland: 79.0% chance of victory
Nov. 29 vs. No. 4 Ohio State: 36.9% chance of victory
PROJECTED RECORD: 8.8-3.4

The road ahead for the Wolverines

Kickoff times are set for the first four games of the regular season and the finale against OSU. Saturday night’s tilt at the Big House kicks off at 7:30 p.m. from Ann Arbor against New Mexico, followed by a 7:30 p.m. kick at Oklahoma on Sept. 6.

Michigan returns home on Sept. 13 for an in-state showdown with Central Michigan, set for noon on Big Ten Network. Its conference opener will take place at Nebraska on Sept. 20 in Lincoln, set for 3:30 p.m. on CBS.

The Wolverines have a bye week on Sept. 27 before returning to game action on Oct. 4 at home vs. Wisconsin.