Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to take on Michigan State Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. MSU head man Tom Izzo is 3-3 against U-M since head coach Juwan Howard took over ahead of the 2019-20 campaign. Both teams are coming off league wins — MSU has won five straight overall, and the Wolverines, undefeated in conference play at 3-0, have notched two-straight victories.

Here’s everything you need to know before tip-off.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Michigan State

Date	Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023
Venue	Jack Breslin Student Events Center (East Lansing, Mich.)
Time	2:31 p.m. ET (possible five-minute slide)
TV / Stream	FOX or the FOX Sports App
On The Call	Gus Johnson (play-by-play) and Jim Jackson (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Michigan State -4, over/under 139
Kenpom Prediction	Michigan State 72, Michigan 68

Michigan projected starters

• #0 – Freshman guard Dug McDaniel (5-11, 160) — Tallying 6.26points, 3 assists and 2.6 boards per game … Shoots 38.5 percent overall — 40.3 percent on twos and 33.3 percent on threes (8-of-24) … Generates 0.883 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which ranks in the 57th percentile nationally.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 195) — Averaging 12.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game … Shooting 46.6 percent from the field, including 16-of-48 from three (33.3 percent) … Puts up 0.921 points per ball-screen possession (including passes), which slots in the 65th percentile in the country.

• #13 – Freshman guard Jett Howard (6-8, 215) — The head coach’s youngest son is posting 14.6 points, 2.6 assists and 3 rebounds per outing and leading the team with 34 made triples on 92 tries (37 percent) … Has a 53.2 effective field goal percentage on jump shots.

• #5 – Junior forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 225) — Recording 7.6 points and 6.9 rebounds per clash while connecting on 37.6 percent of his overall shots and 31 percent of his three-pointers (13-of-42) … Is used as a spot-up shooter and offensive rebounder on the offensive end.

• #1 – Junior center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The two-time All-Big Ten performer and 2021 second-team All-American is in the 75th percentile nationally with 1.037 points per post-up possession (including passes) … Averaging 18.7 points and 8.3 rebounds per game while shooting 57.3 percent from the field and 5-of-13 from three-point range.

Key bench contributors

• #15 – Graduate guard Joey Baker (6-7, 205) — The Duke transfer is averaging 4.9 points and 2.1 rebounds per game while shooting 17-of-35 from long range (48.6 percent) … He’s 3-of-14 on two-point attempts.

• #32 – Freshman forward Tarris Reed Jr. (6-10, 260) — Michigan’s highest-rated 2022 signee is recording 3.1 points and 3.1 rebounds in 9.6 minutes per night … Connects on 55.9 percent of his field goals (all two-pointers) and is just 6-of-24 from the free throw line (22.7 percent).

Michigan State projected starters

• #11 – Junior guard A.J. Hoggard (6-4, 205) — Averaging 12.2 points, 5.8 assists and 3.5 rebounds per outing, while shooting 39.4 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from long range … Generates 0.980 points per possession on ball screens (including passes) … Making only 47.1 percent of his shots at the rim, which slots in the 32nd percentile nationally.

• #2 – Senior guard Tyson Walker (6-1, 180) — Registering 13.7 points, 3.3 assists and 2.7 rebounds per game … Shooting 41.8 percent from the field and 34.8 percent on 46 three-point attempts … Scores 0.915 points per ball-screen possession (including passes) and has a 60 effective field goal percentage on guarded jump shots.

• #3 – Sophomore guard Jaden Akins (6-4, 190) — Averaging 22 minutes per game this season but has gotten more healthy and logged 29 minutes in Tuesday’s game against Nebraska … Putting up 8 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1 assist per clash, while shooting 36.2 percent overall and 41.7 percent on 24 three-point attempts … 73.2 percent of his attempts are jump shots, on which he has a 50.8 effective field goal percentage … Has a 67.1 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers (88th percentile nationally).

• #10 – Graduate forward Joey Hauser (6-9, 220) — Posting 13.8 points, 7.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game … Shooting 48.3 percent from the field and 43.1 percent on 50 three-point attempts … Stretches the floor from his ‘4’ position, with 65 percent of his attempts being jump shots … Connects on 47.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers (88th percentile) and 61.5 percent of his shots at the rim (73rd).

• #22 – Junior center Mady Sissoko (6-9, 240) — Taken a big leap this season, after never averaging more than 5.5 minutes per game his previous two years with Michigan State … Averaging 6.4 points and 6.8 rebounds in 21.9 minutes per game, and shooting 56.8 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Grades out poorly as a post-up big, generating only 0.639 points per play (including passes), but is an excellent ball-screen roll man (1.421 PPP, 89th percentile) and good on put backs (1.286 PPP, 63rd percentile) … Also allows just 0.634 points per post-up possession as a defender.

Key bench contributors

• #25 – Senior forward Malik Hall (6-8, 220) — Missed eight consecutive games from Nov. 24 to Dec. 21 with a stress injury in his right foot, but returned for the last two outings, playing 12 and 19 minutes off the bench, respectively … Averaging 10.4 points and 4.6 rebounds per game and shooting 54.3 percent overall … Connecting on 33.3 percent of his triple tries (4-of-12) … Spot-up shooter who’s also a strong driver and post-up player from the wing or forward position.

• #1 – Sophomore guard Pierre Brooks II (6-6, 220) — Registering 6.9 points and 2.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 39.9 percent overall and 40.7 percent from three on 54 attempts … Spot-up shooter who rarely runs ball screens … 71.4 percent of his attempts are jump shots, and he’s shooting just 33.3 percent at the rim.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR

1. The environment and the basics

Michigan State’s student section is right on top of the floor at the Breslin Center. That, along with the hatred Spartan fans have for the Wolverines, will create a loud environment.

When given the opportunity, Michigan State loves to run off of both makes and misses, even though the Spartans rank 300th nationally in tempo, Izzo’s lowest standing in that category since the 2006-07 season. According to Synergy, they score 11.8 transition points per game.

Michigan assistant Saddi Washington has the scout for this game, and we’d guess one of the bullet points at the top of the page — bolded and underlined — is to stop the Spartans’ transition game. It’s easier said than done, of course, something the Maize and Blue found out last year, when MSU scored 28 points on the break in an 83-67 win in East Lansing.

The loud environment makes it hard to communicate when getting back on defense and adds to the challenge.

This is Michigan’s second true road game, with the first being a 90-75 victory at Minnesota Dec. 8. Two freshmen starters in McDaniel and Jett Howard will experience the first raucous away environment of their careers. How they and the others handle it will be crucial in determining the outcome.

2. Scouting Michigan State

Michigan State runs a ball-screen-heavy offense with Hoggard and Walker, creates looks for its bevy of high-level shooters, notching assists on a whopping 63.9 percent of makes, and connects on 37.5 percent of its three-point shot attempts, which ranks 34th in the nation. The Spartans also don’t turn the ball over very often, on just 16.2 percent of their possessions, the 37th-best mark in the sport.

Izzo’s club shoots only 33.7 percent of its looks from long range, however, and has just a 48.4 two-point field goal percentage (243rd in the land).

The Spartans rank in the 92nd percentile nationally with a 55.3 effective field goal percentage on guarded jumpers, showing their ability to make tough shots. They also shoot the seventh-most mid-range jumpers in the country, 6.5 per game, and cash in on 40.7 percent of them (90th).

Michigan State’s offense has been good, ranking 44th nationally in adjusted efficiency, but also has the propensity to struggle, especially against decent teams. It’s no coincidence that the Spartans have lost all five games in which they’ve posted less than 0.98 points per possession.

The defense also hasn’t been quite good enough to survive cold shooting nights. Michigan State is 49th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, allows a lot of three-point attempts, doesn’t force many turnovers and is just okay at defending inside the arc, allowing opponents to shoot 47.1 percent on twos. Additionally, 54.5 percent of opponents’ made shots are assisted.

Opponents are making just 30.1 percent of their three-point attempts, despite getting a lot of looks.

3. How Wolverines match up

Michigan typically plays drop coverage against ball screens, but that may allow Walker, a good mid-range shooter, a bit of space to get his shot. McDaniel will likely draw that assignment, and while he’s young and learning, he has the edge in athleticism.

Hoggard is a strong driver and can get to the rim as well as any guard in the league. Bufkin, Michigan’s best two-way player, will have to be as good as he’s been.

Considering how good of a spot-up shooters Akin has proven to be, Jett Howard has his work cut out for him. He’s had too many defensive lapses to count this season but can’t lose Akins on the perimeter.

Michigan State doesn’t run much offense through the post and isn’t very efficient when it does, generating only 0.791 points per play. Dickinson should be able to handle Sissoko, but Williams will face a challenge against Hauser, who will both post up and play on the outside.

Michigan runs the most ball screens in the Big Ten, which will test the Spartans. Izzo’s group ranks 209th in the country in ball screen defense, allowing 0.862 points per play. The Wolverines should be able to find some success there, including with Dickinson as a roller.

Michigan State is solid with its post defense, ranking in the 81st percentile in the country, and played good big men in matchups against Gonzaga and Kentucky. However, the ‘Zags scored 15 post-up points and Kentucky put up 11. Plus, we know Dickinson — who put up 33 and 25 in two meetings against the Spartans last season — has an edge in this matchup. Sissoko staying out of foul trouble is key for Michigan State, with the Spartans not having many other options to attempt to take on Dickinson.

Prediction

Michigan hasn’t won at the Breslin Center since Jan. 13, 2018, a 10-point win fueled by Moritz Wagner‘s 27 points. At the same time, the Spartans haven’t won at Crisler Center since 2019, before Howard’s tenure, so the matchup has gone the way of the home team as of late.

The Maize and Blue have a big man who has gone off against MSU in the last two meetings and is coming off a pair of great games against Maryland and Penn State. That’s a great place to start.

The freshman starters will have to play well and stay under control on both ends. If that happens, and Michigan defends like it has the last two games, this will likely come down to the wire.

Still, this is a tough place to play. The Spartans are 30-7 in their last 37 home games with fans (excluding 2020-21 season). While the level of difficulty hasn’t been very impressive, they’re on a five-game winning streak and have been more consistent than Michigan this season. The Wolverines may well become the better team by the time March rolls around, as is typically the case in recent history, but MSU will pull out a hard-fought home win.

Prediction: Michigan State 75, Michigan 69