By the numbers: Michigan to face Wisconsin's top-ranked run defense ... again

The last time Michigan football played Wisconsin, the narrative entering the game surrounded the Badgers’ vaunted rush defense that ranked No. 1 in the country, and whether U-M would have enough offensive firepower to pull out its first win at Camp Randall since 2001.

Michigan did, of course, beating Wisconsin, 38-17, Oct. 4, 2021, in a coming-out-party type of victory that proved to the nation that Michigan was for real. The Wolverines won the Big Ten championship with an 11-1 regular-season record and made their first-ever College Football Playoff. They were, in fact, for real.

“Now, what remains to be seen is, when that gets taken away, can they throw the ball? Has the quarterback developed?” Fox Sports analyst Joel Klatt said before the Michigan-Wisconsin game in 2021. “And last week, it didn’t. They only completed one pass in the second half against Rutgers. One. Now, Rutgers is vastly improved under Greg Schiano. But what I can’t wait to see this week, when they go up against what I think is an immovable force in the front seven of that Wisconsin defense, can Michigan go out there and throw the football to move it?”

Similar questions can be asked this week, because Wisconsin has — you guessed it — the No. 1 run defense in America entering the next chapter of the series, with Michigan hosting the Badgers Saturday at noon in Ann Arbor. (Michigan threw for 253 yards and 3 touchdowns, while also rushing for 117 yards in the 38-17 win in Madison in 2021.)

Wisconsin is 2-2 this season but has effectively stopped the run each week. The Badgers haven’t allowed more than the 72 yards Alabama ran for in a 42-10 loss in Tuscaloosa — Miami (Ohio) (34), Middle Tennessee State (33) and Maryland (61) all rushed for less than that. On average, Wisconsin is giving up just 50 rushing yards per contest and 2.1 per attempt.

Michigan, on the other hand, possesses one of the best rushing attacks in the country, ranking eighth nationally with 253.5 yards per game. The Wolverines have averaged 4.6 yards or more per carry in all four contests this year, and racked up 381 (Central Michigan) and 286 (Nebraska) yards on the ground in each of their last two outings.

While Michigan’s pass offense is much improved from last season, it’s relatively unproven even though freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has shown flashes of greatness. The Maize and Blue are registering only 120.6 yards per contest through the air, checking in 16th of 18 Big Ten teams, ahead of only Northwestern (113.6) and Iowa (117).

Underwood is averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt, ranking 14th of 18 qualified quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Considering the Wolverines averaged a Big Ten-worst 5.4 yards per pass last year, though, it’s significant progress — and Underwood is only growing.

The 18-year-old has completed 56.3 percent of his passes for 733 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 interception, while also getting involved in the run game.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin notes

Michigan and Wisconsin haven’t played since 2021, when the Wolverines not only won in Madison for the first time since 2001 but beat the Badgers for the first time since 2018. Wisconsin came in having beaten U-M in 2019 and 2020.

Michigan holds the all-time series lead, 49-15-1, but the Badgers hold a 7-5 advantage since 2005. Prior to ’05, Michigan won six straight games in the series.

Luke Fickell is reeling

Wisconsin was 12-13 in the first two full seasons under head coach Luke Fickell, making this a pivotal year for the third-year head coach. But the Badgers have gotten off to a less-than-ideal start, going 2-2.

The loss to Alabama was expected, though it was a 32-point setback, but the blowout against Maryland was not — and only fanned the flames of fury in Madison. Wisconsin was dominated on its home field, 27-10, and struggled mightily offensively, amassing only 3.8 yards per play and 296 total yards.

Wisconsin is 5-6 in true road games under Fickell, and Michigan will look to make sure the Badgers stay under .500 in away settings.

Fickell is firmly on the hot seat, despite his $25 million buyout.