Final NFL mock draft roundup for Michigan prospects: Two Wolverines receive first-round projections

Michigan Wolverines football has had at least one player picked in 85 consecutive NFL Drafts, and that streak is set to continue this year. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy is projected to be selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft Thursday night in Detroit. U-M has had at least one first-round selection in five straight drafts, and McCarthy has a strong chance to make it six in a row.

McCarthy is a consensus top-11 prospect in the 13 mock drafts rounded up below. He’s been projected anywhere from No. 3 to the New England Patriots to No. 11 to the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings appear to be the most likely landing spot, with eight of the 13 mocks pegging him as a Minnesota pick (at various different spots based on trades).

Defensive back Mike Sainristil also received a first-round projection in one mock draft, giving him the chance to surprise Thursday night.

Here’s a look at final first-round mock drafts and big board projections for Michigan players heading into the event.

Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

• Jason La Canfora, The Washington Post: No. 3 to the New England Patriots
“All the recent bluster out of New England about being open to trades — and I warned you that was coming — will be for naught,” La Canfora wrote. “This kid is a winner, evaluators I know love him and he’s probably more NFL-ready than [North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye].

• Gordon McGuinness, Pro Football Focus: No. 4 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Arizona Cardinals)
“The Vikings have the trade ammunition to jump up to No. 4, while the Cardinals have enough needs that taking the extra first-round pick and moving back would make sense,” McGuiness wrote. “[LSU quarterback Jayden] Daniels or McCarthy would be a toss-up for me here, but because of Daniels’ high pressure-to-sack rate, I believe McCarthy has a higher floor. The Michigan product earned a 90.6 PFF grade in 2023, so I think his ceiling is being underrated, too.”

• The Athletic’s Dane Brugler: No. 5 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Los Angeles Chargers
“It feels like it’ll be a race between the Vikings and Broncos to nab the draft’s fourth quarterback,” Brugler wrote. “In this scenario, the Vikings win out and trade up with the Chargers to take McCarthy.”

• Matt Miller, ESPN: No. 5 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Los Angeles Chargers)
“McCarthy is pro-ready coming out of the Michigan offense and would enter a dream situation with the Vikings thanks to the great supporting cast in place,” Miller wrote. “I see good arm strength and a smooth release on tape, and he can make plays with his legs.”

• Joel Klatt, FOX: No. 5 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Los Angeles Chargers)
“This is where the draft gets interesting,” Klatt wrote. “If this is how the first four picks go, [Chargers head coach] Jim Harbaugh holds the keys to where his college quarterback is going to play. I would be shocked if they aren’t in communication about that, and I think Harbaugh wishes in a lot of ways that he could draft McCarthy. The Chargers won’t trade Justin Herbert, but I think they’ve kicked the tires on this. The problem is that the money doesn’t work, owing Herbert too much and creating a massive dead cap hit. I don’t think they’ve abandoned that thinking because Harbaugh loves McCarthy.

“So, Minnesota is ultimately where Harbaugh decides to send McCarthy. It’s the best place to go for any of these quarterbacks, with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison at receiver and [head coach] Kevin O’Connell as a playcaller, giving whoever ends up going here a chance to have a [Houston Texans quarterback] C.J. Stroud-esque rookie season.”

• Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports: No. 5 to the New York Giants (trade with Los Angeles Chargers)
“In a trade not mentioned often during the draft process, the Giants secure their quarterback by making a one-spot ascension to stave off any move-up from the Vikings, Broncos, or Raiders,” Trapasso wrote.

• Sam Farmer, The Los Angeles Times: No. 6 to the New York Giants
“McCarthy could go earlier. Giants are looking to move on from [quarterback] Daniel Jones, who is coming off an ACL tear,” Farmer wrote.

• Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: No. 6 to the New England Patriots (trade with New York Giants)
“The Patriots move down, add some picks, and still land a quarterback,” Prisco said. “McCarthy is a guy teams like a lot more than I do. The word around the league before the draft is that the Patriots really like him.”

• Peter Schrager, NFL Network: No. 7 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Tennessee Titans)
“The Vikings sweat through the Chargers’ and Giants’ picks and care to sweat no more,” Schrager wrote. “To move up four spots, Minnesota gives Tennessee a host of future picks, including a first-rounder, but holds on to No. 23 overall. McCarthy lands in the best immediate situation of all of this year’s top QBs. Remember, GMs Ran Carthon and Kwesi Adofo Mensah have a long history together from their days in San Francisco.”

• ESPN’s Field Yates: No. 8 to the Minnesota Vikings (trade with Atlanta Falcons)
“McCarthy would be in an excellent situation with Minnesota’s supporting cast, and the Vikings would also preserve their 23rd overall pick by moving to only No. 8 to get him,” Yates wrote. “McCarthy has the high-end accuracy to get the ball to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, as well as the mobility to pick up yards on the ground. And I know Minnesota has Sam Darnold, but I believe McCarthy would start right away.”ichigan

• Connor Rogers, NBC Sports: No. 8 to the Denver Broncos (trade with Atlanta Falcons)
“The Broncos avoid paying an absurdly high cost of getting into a top five pick and still get what they believe can be their franchise quarterback of the future,” Rogers wrote.

• Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network: No. 11 to the Minnesota Vikings
“I wouldn’t rule out Minnesota trading up a couple spots for a quarterback, but all the information I’ve gathered in the last couple days suggests the Vikings are not crazy about making a bold move up the board for McCarthy,” Jeremiah wrote. “I believe they’ve grown more comfortable with [Washington quarterback] Michael Penix Jr. as a fallback option if a team were to leapfrog them for McCarthy.”

• Bleacher Report: No. 11 to the Minnesota Vikings
“Clearly, this is a scenario where the expectation is the Minnesota Vikings land Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy in a likely trade-up scenario,” the site wrote. “The projection remains intact simply because no trades have been included.

“Otherwise, this fit seems destined. While McCarthy probably won’t make it to No. 11 overall, the point is the pairing and McCarthy’s fit in purple and yellow.”

Michigan CB Mike Sainristil

• Connor Rogers, NBC Sports: No. 31 to the San Francisco 49ers
“Another surprise pick! Sainristil’s ability to create takeaways and impact the game from the slot is highly coveted by NFL teams,” Rogers wrote. “With the offensive line run going in front of San Francisco in this scenario, the 49ers beef up their secondary instead.”

Michigan players on best prospects list, position rankings

QB J.J. McCarthy
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler (top 300): No. 21 overall prospect, No. 4 quarterback
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. (top 150): No. 15 overall prospect, No. 4 quarterback
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah (top 150): No. 20 overall prospect, No. 4 quarterback

DT Kris Jenkins
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 36 overall prospect, No. 3 defensive tackle
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 60 overall prospect, No. 4 defensive tackle
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 48 overall prospect, No. 4 defensive tackle

WR Roman Wilson
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 41 overall prospect, No. 8 wide receiver
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 43 overall prospect, No. 12 wide receiver
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 58 overall prospect, No. 12 wide receiverichiga

LB Junior Colson
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 42 overall prospect, No. 1 linebacker
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 64 overall prospect, No. 2 off-ball linebacker
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 43 overall prospect, No. 3 linebacker

CB Mike Sainristil
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 43 overall prospect, No. 6 cornerback
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 56 overall prospect, No. 10 cornerback
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 50 overall prospect, No. 8 cornerback

RB Blake Corum
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 77 overall prospects, No. 2 running back
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 118 overall prospect, No. 6 running back
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 90 overall prospect, No. 4 running back

OG Zak Zinter
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 131 overall prospect, No. 10 guard
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 73 overall prospect, No. 4 guard

TE AJ Barner
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 182 overall prospect, No. 9 tight end
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 14 tight end

WR Cornelius Johnson
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 194 overall prospect, No. 28 wide receiver
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 29 wide receiver

EDGE Jaylen Harrell
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 218 overall prospect, No. 21 EDGE
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 13 outside linebacker

OG Trevor Keegan
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 221 overall prospect, No. 18 guard
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 15 guard

OG LaDarius Henderson
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 229 overall prospect, No. 19 guard
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 17 guard

EDGE Braiden McGregor
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 232 overall prospect, No. 23 EDGE
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 10 defensive end

LB Michael Barrett
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 264 overall prospect, No. 20 linebacker
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 17 linebacker

OG Karsen Barnhart
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 280 overall prospect, No. 23 guard
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 20 guard

OG Trente Jones
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 287 overall prospect, No. 24 guard
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 18 guard

C Drake Nugent
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 299 overall prospect, No. 15 center
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 14 center
• NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: No. 118 overall prospect, No. 11 interior offensive lineman

CB Josh Wallace
• The Athletic‘s Dane Brugler: No. 41 cornerback
• ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 41 cornerback