Michigan's NCAA outlook as we get closer to Selection Sunday
Michigan stands at 17-14 overall, and they finished 11-9 in Big Ten play. The Wolverines went into the Big Ten Tournament winning the opening round game 14 straight times, a streak that I was personally a part of, literally playing Iowa every year. And, respectfully, giving Todd Lickliter the absolute business. Michigan played a great 28 minutes against Indiana until DeVante Jones tweaked his ankle and briefly came out. At this very moment, the wheels fell off. Michigan immediately gave up a 7-0 run in one minute of play. Jones had to come back in but he was not the same. Indiana closed the game on a 31-9 run in front of thousands of Hoosier fans, beating Michigan for the first time since 2016. Michigan is now on to the postseason, but will that end up in the NCAA Tournament or the NIT?
Fans want to bring up what Michigan deserves or does not deserve. In my opinion, they deserve whatever option the committee makes because they effectively put the decision in their hands by not closing out and collapsing against UCF, Indiana, and Seton Hall. They lost to a Minnesota team at home who ended up with four total wins in the conference. But just like those losses do not go away, neither do the big wins. The 24 point win over Purdue still exists, so do the wins at Iowa and at Indiana. San Diego State is currently Top 25 on the NET, and Michigan beat them by 14 points. Let’s examine the Bubble World to get an understanding of what has been happening around the country.
Top 5 Bracketologists
The Top 5 rated bracketologists on bracketmatrix.com (based on the last three or more years of brackets) have Michigan in the tournament.
Michigan’s Resume Overview
- NET: 34th
- Kenpom: 33rd
- BPI: 29th
- Sagarin: 25th
- Strength of Schedule: 5th
- Nonconference Strength of Schedule: 26th
- Quad 1 Record: 5-10
- Worst Loss: #108 NET rank Minnesota
Despite an ugly 17-14 record, Michigan’s metrics are still holding strong and firm. Their schedule toughness is a big reason why they still should be in good NCAA tournament standing. These are the metrics being used by the committee to get a deeper understanding how to evaluate teams, because fortunately, just looking at wins and losses do not tell the complete story.
Individual Team Bubble News
WAKE FOREST: Wake needed to get to at least the semi-finals of the ACC tournament. The Demon Deacons only have one Quad 1 win, and they ended up losing to 20-loss 149th NET ranked Boston College in their first game. They finished 23-9 but had a nonconference strength of schedule that was 351st with two Quad three losses.
XAVIER: Xavier needed one more win to feel good about the NCAA tournament, but they lost to Butler who is ranked 121st on the NET. Xavier’s nonconference strength of schedule is rated 136th in the country.
OKLAHOMA: Oklahoma was making a push for an At-Large bid, and was down one point with the ball against Texas Tech in the Big 12 semifinals. They were called for a travel, and ended their NCAA tournament chances.
Conference Championship Bubble News
High Major Conference Championships: No real upsets. Last year, the conference tournament had major bid stealers in Oregon State and Georgetown. This year, the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, and the Pac12 will mostly feature teams who or in the tournament. Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament championship against Duke is the only true bubble team here, but I think their metrics will eventually push them into the field.
MVC Championship: Loyola-Chicago won the Missouri Valley championship by six points over Drake. Loyola-Chicago was an At-Large contender as a 10 or 11 seed if they lost that game.
Summit League Championship: It was important for South Dakota State to win their tournament. I think the NCAA committee would have put them in as a play-in seed in Dayton.
OVC Championship: Murray State was an At Large bid going into the OVC tournament. They played Morehead State and won by four points. OVC was going to be a two bid league if Murray State did not win their tournament.
MWC Championship: Utah State, Wyoming, and UNLV had a legit chance to make a run at the MWC championship. There were three locks in my opinion. Michigan needed two of Boise State, Colorado St, and San Diego State to play in the MWC championship. The championship is between Boise State and San Diego State.
Check out this article for Michigan’s rooting interests today
