Preview and prediction: Michigan at Ohio State

Michigan Wolverines basketball (16-13, 10-9) will take on Ohio State (19-9, 12-7) in Columbus Sunday afternoon.

The Wolverines are searching for at least one more win in hopes of securing an NCAA Tournament bid, while Ohio State is solidly in the Big Dance. The Buckeyes lost two straight to Maryland and Nebraska, but bounced back with a big win over Michigan State Thursday. Meanwhile, Michigan is 4-4 in its last eight and hasn’t won two-straight games since early February. It just lost to Iowa at home Thursday.

Below is everything you need to know before tip-off, including a breakdown of each key player, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan At Ohio State

Date: Sunday, March 6

Time: 12:37 p.m. ET

Venue: Schottenstein Center (Columbus, Ohio)

Channel: FOX

On The Call: Gus Johnson (play-by-play) and Jim Jackson (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Ohio State -4, over/under 144.5

Kenpom Prediction: Ohio State 75, Michigan 71

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (18-11 ATS): See below

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 10.1 points, 4.6 assists (fourth in the Big Ten) and 4.7 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.6 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 12.1 points, 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per outing, while shooting 44.9 percent overall and 39 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.9 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.4 assists per clash, while shooting 40.7 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from long range … Developing some consistency, with four consecutive games in double digits scoring.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — The Paris native is averaging nine points and 5.6 rebounds per tilt … Makes 55.6 percent of his overall shot attempts and is 43-of-71 from the free throw line (60.6 percent).

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 18.4 points (fifth in the Big Ten), 8.5 rebounds (fourth) and 2.3 assists per game … Shooting 56.3 percent from the field and has made 17 of his 54 three-point attempts (31.5 percent).

Key Bench Contributors

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 14.7 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.3 points and 2.4 rebounds, and shooting 46.1 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from long range.

• #2 – Freshman guard Kobe Bufkin (6-4, 175) — Registers 3.1 points and 1.2 rebounds per game at the ‘2’ and ‘3’ positions, and shoots 39.1 percent overall and just 21.2 percent from three-point range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 9.9 minutes per appearance … Posts 2.5 points, 1.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists per outing and shoots 38.1 percent from the field … Is 2-of-14 from long range.

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 3.6 points and 2.1 boards per outing, while shooting 41.5 percent from the field and 10-of-29 from three-point range (34.5 percent).

Ohio State Projected Starters

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Jamari Wheeler (6-1, 170) — The Penn State graduate transfer averages 7.3 points, 3.1 assists and 3.1 rebounds per game, while shooting 47.6 percent overall and 39 percent from long range … An excellent spot-up shooter, with 1.24 points per play (96th percentile nationally), and runs 24.1 percent of Ohio State’s ball screens at 1.006 PPP.

• #22 – Freshman guard Malaki Branham (6-5, 180) — The former top-45 recruit registers 13.1 points, 1.9 assists and 3.6 boards per outing … Shoots 48.9 percent from the field and 44 percent from long range … Is the most used Buckeye on ball screens, with 1.135 PPP … 32.3 percent of his shots come around the basket and he’s shooting 56.2 percent on such looks … Better on jumpers, which he shoots 58.4 percent of the time (46.2 percent) … Averaging 16.8 points per game since Jan. 1.

• #3 – Sophomore wing Eugene Brown III (6-6, 195) — Registers 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds per outing, while connecting on 43.8 percent of his overall shots from the field and 24.1 percent of his three-point attempts … Mostly used as a spot-up shooter in the half court offense.

• #32 – Junior forward E.J. Liddell (6-7, 240) — The 2021 first-team All-Big Ten performer is averaging a team-high 19.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.6 assists per clash, while connecting on 49.7 percent of his overall looks and 38 percent of his triple tries … Shoots 29.4 percent of Ohio State’s shots when he’s on the floor, with a usage rate that ranks 42nd nationally … Scores from all three levels and in a multitude of ways — post-ups (1.021 PPP), spot-ups (1.197 PPP), pick-and-roll roller (1.197 PPP), put-backs (1.293 PPP), isolations (0.902 PPP), cuts (1.057 PPP), in transition (1.156 PPP).

• #23 – Sophomore forward Zed Key (6-8, 245) — Puts up 8.3 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 56.5 percent from the field (all two-pointers) … Mainly used as a post-up big, generating 0.95 PPP, and a cutter (1.323 PPP) … Questionable for Sunday afternoon, after missing the Michigan State game and wearing a boot on the sideline.

Key Bench Contributors

• #25 Fifth-year senior forward Kyle Young (6-8, 225) — Plays the ‘4’ when Liddell moves to the ‘5’ … Averages 8.2 points and 4.9 boards per outing, while shooting 51.9 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from beyond the arc … Most of his shot attempts are either jumpers, as the roller on pick-and-roll actions or as a cutter … Shoots 60.7 percent on non-post-up shots around the basket … Questionable for the game, after missing the tilt against Michigan State.

• #0 – Freshman guard Meechie Johnson Jr. (6-2, 172) — Was injured the last time Michigan played Ohio State … Posts 4.7 points and 1.5 rebounds per contest, while hitting 31 percent of his field goals and 32.1 percent of his three-point attempts, which make up 78 of his 113 shots for the season.

• #2 – Fifth-year senior guard Cedric Russell (6-2, 190) — The Louisiana transfer puts up 4.6 points per game, mostly serving as a spot-up shooter … 63 of his 97 shot attempts have come from deep, where he shoots 42.9 percent.

• #50 – Fifth-year senior center Joey Brunk (6-11, 255) — The Butler and Indiana transfer averages two points and 1.2 rebounds per game for the season but started Thursday against Michigan State and scored 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting.

Matchup Breakdown

• Michigan lost to Ohio State by 11 points at Crisler Center Feb. 12, behind a 4-for-17 night from three-point land and 48.8 percent shooting on twos. The Wolverines wilted in the second half, when E.J. Liddell shredded the in single coverage, scoring 28 points, 17 of which came after halftime. Only two Buckeyes — Liddell and Cedric Russell — scored in double figures, but Michigan had virtually no offensive firepower, with OSU’s strategy to switch screens in the second half paying off.

• Ohio State’s offense ranks 12th nationally in offensive efficiency, with a 54.8 effective field goal percentage (22th in the country), 37.2 three-point percentage (36th) and 54.3 two-point percentage (34th).

The Buckeyes don’t run many pick and rolls, but are extremely efficient when they do, generating 1.017 points per possession, which leads the Big Ten. Ohio State’s guards look to pass first and score second, consistently looking for Liddell and the other big men in the post, or spot-up shooters on the wings. The Buckeyes play a slow tempo and score just 8.2 points in transition per game, but still score 74.2 points per night, the fourth-highest mark in the Big Ten, showing just how efficient their half-court attack is.

• Ohio State’s offense is great, but its defense is not, with the Buckeyes slotting 119th nationally in defensive efficiency. They don’t force many turnovers and allow opponents to get hot from long range, shooting 33.9 percent from beyond the arc. They are better inside, yielding a 46.1-percent clip from inside the arc and allowing just 0.835 points per play against post ups. They do a good job of mixing up coverages in the post, double-teaming 28.3 percent of the time and digging on other occasions. However, Ohio State grades out below average in every single defensive play type on Synergy — spot up, pick and roll, cuts, isolations, etc. — except in transition and on post ups.

• The biggest advantage Michigan has in this game — theoretically — is with its pick-and-roll game. The Wolverines generate 0.921 points per play on that action, which slots in the 78th percentile nationally, while Ohio State is in the 26th percentile guarding it. Michigan only notched eight points out of ball screens against the Buckeyes the first time, though, one of the reasons why it was one of its worst offensive performances during the Big Ten seasons.

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (18-11 ATS)

Michigan is playing for its NCAA Tournament life, but we’re not sure how much that means considering they laid an egg in a similar situation against Iowa Thursday. Ohio State is firmly in the tournament, and while it smacked Michigan State Thursday night, the Buckeyes haven’t been playing particularly well, suffering shocking losses to Maryland and Nebraska in back-to-back games and ranking 41st in the country in overall efficiency since the first meeting with Michigan.

Both teams will be playing their fourth game in eight days, but Michigan must have more energy. A win would allow it to feel comfortable about its tournament chances heading into Indianapolis next week. The Wolverines will have to make adjustments on how they guard Liddell, and they’ve got to take advantage of Ohio State’s suspect ball-screen coverage as well as hit open three-pointers when they’re there.

Michigan and Ohio State are both inconsistent and look like different teams on different nights. the uncertainty surrounding whether or not Key or Walker will play might just give the Maize and Blue the edge.

Prediction: Michigan 74, Ohio State 69