Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Iowa

Michigan Wolverines basketball has lost three in a row and five of its last six. The team is looking to get back on track against Iowa, which has dropped its last two contests in blowout fashion — both on the road, to Purdue (87-68) and Iowa State (90-65).

Head coach Fran McCaffery‘s crew is 5-4 on the season but hasn’t lost a home game yet (4-0). Neither team intends on beginning the Big Ten season 0-2.

Here’s a look at everything you need to know before Michigan and Iowa tip off, including our final score prediction.

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Game information: Michigan basketball vs. Iowa

Date	Sunday, Dec. 10
Venue	Carver Hawkeye Arena (15,500)
Time	4:33 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Big Ten Network
On The Call	Dave Revsine (play-by-play) and Shon Morris (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WTKA (1050 AM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Iowa -4, over/under 160
Kenpom Prediction	Iowa 84, Michigan 80 (36-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: On Nov. 3, U-M announced that junior guard Jace Howard would miss 4-6 weeks with a stress fracture in his right knee and tibia. He should be nearing a return but hasn’t dressed for a game yet.

Stat to know: Michigan ranks 25th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Kenpom. However, the Maize and Blue are 132nd in defense. The program hasn’t finished worse than that defensively since checking in 150th in 2001-02.

Trend to watch: McDaniel is notching 6.8 assists per game in wins and just 3.4 in losses. The Wolverines are also registering assists on only 37.1 percent of their made buckets in their last five games, compared to a 51.5-percent mark in the first four contests of the season.

Iowa projected starters

• #11 – Senior guard Tony Perkins (6-4, 205) — Putting up 12 points, 2.4 assists and 4.8 rebounds per outing, while shooting 40.2 percent overall and 33.3 percent on 21 three-point attempts. Perkins is a slasher who gets into the paint, but he hasn’t been efficient this season. He runs pick and rolls but ranks near the bottom in the country with 2 points on 24 possessions (including passes).

• #4 – Sophomore guard Josh Dix (6-5, 200) — Started for the first time in the last game against Iowa State. He’s averaging 5.2 points, 1.7 assists and 2.3 rebounds in 16.9 minutes per contest. He’s shooting 11-of-15 from two-point range and 6-of-12 on threes. He’s mostly a spot-up shooter.

• #20 – Junior forward Payton Sandfort (6-7, 215) — Registering 13.7 points and 7.7 rebounds per clash, while connecting on 58.1 percent of his twos and 35.5 percent of his 62 three-point attempts. Sandfort spots up, uses off-ball screens and dribble handoffs all to get his jump shot off. He’s seen 73.4 percent of his field goal attempts be jump shots this season.

• #22 – Redshirt senior forward Patrick McCaffery (6-9, 212) — 
The head coach’s son is contributing 10.2 points and 3.8 rebounds per game. He’s shooting 52.3 percent on twos and 30.4 percent on 23 three-point shots. He commits only 0.5 fouls per 40 minutes, is strong with the ball and good on the glass. He plays off the ball, getting his touches on spot-ups and from off-ball screens.

• #23 – Graduate forward Ben Krikke (6-9, 245) — The Valparaiso transfer led the Missouri Valley with 19.4 points per game last season. He’s nearly at that mark this season with Iowa, averaging 17.2 points per clash. He’s made 61 percent of his 100 two-point attempts and is 1-of-4 from three. He registers 1.53 points per play on cuts and 0.79 on post-ups.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Iowa

This Iowa team is following the script of many of McCaffery’s squads. They’re good on offense (18th nationally on Kenpom) but bad on defense (149th), while playing fast (27th in tempo with a 15-second average possession length).

Iowa is shooting threes at a 34.6-percent clip and making twos at a 52.6-percent rate. They’re 13th in the country at avoiding turnovers and move the ball around, with assists on 59.6 percent of their made buckets (38th).

As Michigan associate head coach Phil Martelli said Friday, Iowa plays conceptually and often doesn’t run a set. The Wolverines will have to be sound with their close outs and rotations, an area in which they’ve struggled this season.

Iowa can score in bunches and get the Carver Hawkeye crowd going. Michigan knows this, 1-2 at the venue under Juwan Howard. Michigan has improved its transition defense throughout the season but has to be good here against the Hawkeyes, who love to run. Shut that off and make them play in the half court, would be the key, especially since Iowa doesn’t have that go-to scorer like it has in past seasons, outside of how effective Krikke has been on the inside.

Iowa hasn’t shot the ball well during its two-game losing streak, with two of its lowest effective field goal percentage marks of the season coming in losses to Purdue (43.1) and Iowa State (45.6). They’re just 31.8 percent on threes during that stretch.

Per usual, Iowa mixes up its defensive looks. The Hawkeyes mix in zone on 19 percent of possessions and apply full-court pressure 11.8 percent of the time.

The positives for the Iowa defense are that it hardly commits fouls and has defended threes well, with opponents shooting only 31.8 percent from beyond the long line.

The Sandfort vs. Williams matchup will be one to watch. Opponents have attacked Williams throughout the year, and Sandfort can really gain confidence and get into a rhythm if he hits shots early. Conversely, he can also go cold. No matter what, he’s going to get his shorts up, averaging 6.9 three-point attempts per game.

Prediction

It takes discipline to keep Iowa’s offense in check. Michigan has talked in recent days about ‘contest rate,’ and it’ll be important to make sure there are hands in the faces of Iowa shooters. Krikke will be tough to defend on the block, and it’s hard to imagine that Michigan will be able to fix its issues with rotations against a team that will trigger jumpers from anywhere.

Prediction: Iowa 84, Michigan 78