Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball vs. Purdue

Michigan Wolverines basketball (7-11, 2-5 Big Ten) enters Mackey Arena Tuesday night without sophomore starting point guard Dug McDaniel and set to play against one of the best teams in the country, second-ranked Purdue (17-2, 6-2 Big Ten).

Purdue has won three games in a row after falling at Nebraska Jan. 9, while Michigan has dropped six of its last seven games, including Thursday night’s clunker against Illinois at Crisler Center, 88-73.

Here’s everything you need to get ready for tip-off, including our final score prediction.

Game information: Michigan vs. Purdue

Date	Tuesday, Jan. 23, 2024
Venue	Mackey Arena
Time	9 p.m. ET
TV / Stream	Peacock (stream only)
On The Call	Noah Eagle (play-by-play) and Robbie Hummel (color)
Radio	Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM) | Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com
On The Call	Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)
Betting Line	Purdue -17.5, over/under 153.5
Kenpom Prediction	Purdue 86, Michigan 69 (seven-percent chance of U-M victory)

Michigan projected starters

Michigan’s projected starters: Graduate guard Jaelin Llewellyn, graduate guard Nimari Burnett, senior forward Terrance Williams II, graduate forward Olivier Nkamhoua and sophomore forward Tarris Reed Jr.

Michigan injuries: Sophomore guard Dug McDaniel is out while serving his indefinite road game suspension. Graduate forward Tray Jackson has missed the last two games with a broken nose and concussion. The small fracture in his nose may require surgery.

Purdue projected starters

• #3 – Sophomore guard Braden Smith (6-0, 175) — Averaging 11.8 points, 7.2 assists (second in the Big Ten) and 5.4 rebounds per game. Even with a higher usage rate, he’s been much more efficient than last season, particularly from three-point range (41.8 percent this season compared to 37.6 last year). He’s connecting on 45.2 percent of his shot attempts from inside the arc. Smith is producing 17.7 points per possession on ball screens (including passes), which ranks second in the conference behind McDaniel (19.4).

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Lance Jones (6-1, 200) — The Southern Illinois transfer is registering 11.9 points, 2.6 rebounds and 2.4 assists per night. He’s shooting 34.2 percent on threes and 57.1 percent on twos, and has a 50.8 effective field goal percentage on catch-and-shoot jumpers, which have been responsible for 92 of his 226 points this season. He’s known as a high-level defender. He also plays point guard when Smith is out of the game.

• #2 – Sophomore guard Fletcher Loyer (6-4, 180) — Recording 11.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists per outing, while shooting 41.2 percent on twos and 43 percent on 86 threes (he’s up to 52.9 percent from deep in league play). He’s a spot-up shooter who occasionally gets to his floater and is inefficient at the rim (39.5 percent).

• #4 – Sophomore forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (6-9, 230) — Starts but plays just 16.6 minutes per game. He’s averaging 6.9 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.1 assists per clash, shooting 54.1 percent from inside the arc and 7-of-16 (43.8 percent) from beyond it. He posts up (0.8 points per play) and cuts (1.36) on the offensive end.

• #15 – Senior center Zach Edey (7-4, 300) — Kenpom’s No. 1 standout in its player of the year rankings is second nationally in points (23.) and fourth in rebounds (11.5) per game, adding 1.7 assist. He shoots 63.2 percent on twos and is 0-for-1 on threes. He leads the Big Ten with a 19-percent offensive rebounding rate during league play and averages 3.2 points from put-backs per game. He produces 1.02 points per play on post-ups (including passes) and 1.62 as a ball-screen roller.

Key bench contributors
• #0 – Senior forward Mason Gillis (6-6, 225) — A consistent role player his entire career, Gillis is averaging 6.3 points, 3.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 19.4 minutes per game as the backup ‘4.’ He shoots 56 percent on twos and 50 percent on threes, many of which come from spot-up opportunities. He’s a high-level offensive rebounder, corralling 8.4 percent of his own team’s misses when he’s on the floor, and does the dirty work for the Boilermakers.

• #25 – Senior guard Ethan Morton (6-7, 215) — The plus defender is averaging just 12.9 minutes per game after playing 25.2 last season. He puts up 0.9 points, 1.2 rebounds and 1.5 assists per night, connecting on just 6 of his 24 field goal attempts.

• #1 – Junior forward Caleb Furst (6-10, 225) — A starter most of last season, Furst is competing for just 11.7 minutes per contest this year, contributing 2.9 points and 3.4 rebounds on average. He’s shooting 53.1 percent on twos and is 2-of-9 from deep.

What to watch for: Michigan vs. Purdue

1. Zach Edey
It used to be an exciting matchup when Michigan took on Edey, both Purdue’s big man and Hunter Dickinson creating different issues for each other. Dickinson, now at Kansas, could stretch Edey out on the perimeter and made 9 of his 16 three-point attempts in his final three matchups against the Boilermakers.

Now, the issues are squarely Michigan’s to deal with. Edey is once again arguably the best player in the country, and the Wolverines have gotten inconsistent play out of Reed this season. Michigan doesn’t have much depth at all, and Edey leads the country with 9.4 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. It won’t just be Reed on Edey — the Wolverines will have to play Nkamhoua, redshirt sophomore forward Will Tschetter and a lot of double teams.

Edey averages 15.2 post-up possessions per game (including passes), nearly double the next highest number in the Big Ten (Wisconsin’s Steven Crowl at 8.1), on which he scores 15.5 points.

2. More around Edey this year
It’s still true that everything Purdue does revolves around Edey, but he has more help this season. Smith and Loyer are a year older, and bringing in Lance Jones from Southern Illinois was one of the more underrated pickups in the transfer portal.

Purdue shot 32.2 percent from three last season, but that number is up to a cool 39.3 percent this year (11th nationally). The Boilermakers are still great on the interior, shooting 54.7 percent from inside the arc (41st), grabbing 37 percent of their own missed shots (17th) and holding a 40.1-percent free throw rate (31st). Michigan will have its hands full on the inside, one game after head coach Juwan Howard was demoralized about his team’s lack of physicality in a blowout loss to Illinois.

The Boilermakers have the second-most efficient offense in the country, per Kenpom, and Smith has been able to handle a lot more on his plate this season. As mentioned above, he runs the second-most ball screens per game in the Big Ten, and Purdue has been efficient on pick-and-rolls, with 1.053 points per possession this year (97th percentile in the country).

3. Tough sledding inside
Purdue possesses the 13th-most efficient defense in the nation, per Kenpom, and often forces opponents into quick shots because they know it’s hard to attack inside (16.5 seconds per defensive possession). The numbers back that up, too, with opponents shooting just 47.7 percent on twos and 30.9 percent from outside the long line. The Boilermakers rank 13th in the country in defensive rebounding percentage, 94th in block rate and, here’s the kicker, hardly ever foul. It’s exactly how head coach Matt Painter wants to play.

The Boilermakers do allow opponents to shoot 39.2 percent of their field goal attempts from three-point range, accounting for 56.4 percent of their points allowed, so there’s an opportunity for Michigan to get going from deep. The Wolverines are 7-3 when shooting 34.6 percent or better from long range this season, and they made 11-plus triples in four of those victories.

Purdue plays exclusively man-to-man defense, with zero zone possessions logged this season, per Synergy.

Prediction

Winning any road game without McDaniel will be an extremely difficult task, and Kenpom predicts that Michigan will come out on top in just two more games this season (vs. Rutgers Feb. 3, vs. Nebraska March 10). Purdue is as complete a team there is in college basketball, and Michigan’s roster has been jumbled, is dealing with injuries and a suspension, and never had much depth to begin with.

Purdue being a 17.5-point favorite makes Michigan the most significant underdog it’s been in over a decade. And it’s easy to see why when breaking down the matchup.

Prediction: Purdue 89, Michigan 69