Previewing Michigan vs. East Carolina

TheWolverine.com caught up with Al Myatt of Bonesville.net, which has covered East Carolina since 2001, for his insight on the Pirates ahead of their season-opening matchup with Michigan Wolverines football (Saturday at noon ET in Ann Arbor). Myatt broke down ECU and offered his final score prediction. First, we take a look at the projected ECU starting lineup.

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East Carolina projected starters on offense

• #10 – Sophomore QB Mason Garcia (6-5, 249) — Appeared in 12 games with one start in his first three college seasons (COVID year in 2020, six games in 2021, redshirt in 2022) and is now considered the favorite to start, taking over for Holton Ahlers, who threw for 3,708 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. He’s completed 19 of his 38 pass attempts for 179 yards and 1 touchdown with 1 interception and rushed for 120 yards and 2 scores in 32 attempts.

• #47 – Junior RB Rahjai Harris (5-11, 211) — Finished second on the team with 583 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 165 carries (3.5-yard average) and caught 24 passes for 162 yards and 1 score in 2021. He played in five contests last season, before going down with a season-ending ACL injury. He ran for 238 yards and 5 touchdowns on 67 carries and hauled in 9 passes for 71 yards with 1 score before missing the rest of the year.

• #88 – Senior WR Jsi Hatfield (5-11, 173) — Caught 48 passes for 763 yards and 5 touchdowns in his career, including 11 (despite being targeted 21 times, per PFF) for 178 with no scores last season.

• #82 – Graduate WR Jarett Garner (6-3, 208) — The Duke transfer played in all 12 games in his first season at ECU last year and caught 2 passes for 19 yards.

• #1 – Senior WR Jaylen Johnson (6-2, 194) — The Georgia transfer appeared in 10 games with six starts last fall, his first with ECU. He reeled in 26 grabs for 3e40 yards and 4 touchdowns. He totaled only 3 catches for 29 yards in 14 outings for the Bulldogs in 2021. He played on special teams against Michigan in the Orange Bowl.

• #80 – Junior TE Shane Calhoun (6-3, 242) — Has 26 career starts under his belt, with 48 receptions for 475 yards and 4 touchdowns over his three years of experience. Last season, Calhoun notched 25 catches for 202 yards and 2 scores.

• #52 – Junior LT Parker Moorer (6-5, 311) — After three seasons at West Virginia (2019-21), Moorer transferred to ECU and played in 12 games with one start last year. Played 184 snaps at right tackle, 60 at left tackle and 12 at right guard last season. He allowed 11 pressures and no sacks.

• #76 – Redshirt freshman LG Jacob Sacra (6-6, 313) — Redshirted last season, playing in four games, but has been said to have had a strong fall camp.

• #65 – Graduate C Dustyn Hall (6-4, 297) — The South Florida transfer has immense experience, with 34 appearances and 25 starts at his previous stop. He opened all 13 outings for the Bulls a year ago, allowing just 5 pressures and 1 sack, primarily playing right guard.

• #66 – Junior RG Isaiah Foote (6-3, 329) — A nagging shoulder injury affected him but did not force him to miss any time in 2022, when he started all 14 outings at right guard and gave up 13 pressures and 2 sacks. Sophomore Richard Pearce (13 games off the bench last season) is also pushing for the starting job heading into the opener.

• #74 – Junior RT Hampton Ergle (6-7, 315) — Entering his fifth season in the program but has only played in six games so far. He logged 104 snaps a year ago, including in his first career start, which came at center versus Coastal Carolina in the Birmingham Bowl. Graduate Owen Murphy — an Akron transfer — missed some time with an injury during ECU fall camp. He started 15 games over four seasons.

East Carolina projected starters on defense

• #3 – Junior DE Chad Stephens (6-1, 261) — He logged 40 tackles, a team-high 10 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks with 18 pressures. He was named preseason third-team All-AAC by Athlon Sports.

• #11 – Senior OLB Jeremy Lewis (6-2, 237) — Ranked fourth on ECU with 60 stops, including 4.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss (both second on team) last season. He was pegged as a preseason second-team All-AAC performer per Athlon Sports.

• #56 – Junior DT D’Anta Johnson (6-2, 294) — Credited with 18 tackles and 1 stop for loss in 10 games at nose tackle last season.

• #90 – Junior DT Elijah Morris (6-1, 269) — Started all 13 outings for ECU a year ago, recording 23 tackles, including 3 behind the line of scrimmage, and 2.5 sacks. He slotted second on the team with 20 pressures, behind Lewis’ 21.

• #6 – Junior LB Teylor Jackson (6-1, 227) — Made his first career start in the Birmingham Bowl against Coastal Carolina and has seen time in 29 career contests. In nine appearances in 2022, Jackson accumulated 15 tackles, 2 stops for loss and 1 sack. He posted an 86.6 PFF tackling grade and didn’t miss any tackles all season (146 defensive snaps).

• #22 – Junior LB Mike Edwards III (6-0, 206) — The Georgia Southern transfer joined the program before the 2022 campaign. In his first season with the Pirates, he recorded 17 tackles and 1 pass breakup. Graduate BJ Davis — a South Carolina State transfer who was an HBCU All-American last season, finishing with 94 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss and 5 interceptions — should also get some run at weak-side linebacker.

• #32 – Junior LB RaRa Dillworth (6-1, 195) — The North Carolina transfer played 10 games off the bench for the Tar Heels last season, tallying 14 tackles. The Pirates often take this third linebacker off the field in favor of a nickel back, too.

• #28 – Junior CB Shavon Revel (6-2, 185) — The JUCO transfer appeared in nine contests for ECU last season, mostly on special teams. He totaled 8 tackles. He’s said to have had a strong offseason.

• #26 – Redshirt freshman CB Isaiah Brown-Murray (5-9, 192) — Redshirted last year, playing in three games.

• #9 – Junior S Teegan Wilk (5-11, 190) — He played in all 13 games with seven starts last season, registering 55 tackles (fifth on team), 2.5 stops for loss and 5 pass breakups. On 29 targets in coverage, he gave up 20 receptions for 363 yards and 4 touchdowns. Per PFF, he graded out much higher in run defense (68.3) than coverage (50.7).

• Senior S Julius Wood (6-1, 194) — Started 12 of 13 games last season, leading the team with 87 tackles and adding 1.5 stops for loss, 4 pass breakups and 2 interceptions with 3 forced fumbles. He was targeted 40 times in coverage, yielding 26 catches for 416 yards and 7 touchdowns.

East Carolina specialists

• #95 – Sophomore K Andrew Conrad (5-9, 160) — Connected on 8 of his 12 field goal attempts and made all 26 of his PATs last season. His career-long is a 47-yarder, which came against Cincinnati last season.

• #96 – Graduate P Archer Trafford (6-1, 221) — The Mississippi State transfer punted 16 times with a 42.4-yard average and a 60-yard long for the Bulldogs last season. He had an identical average on 26 punts the prior season in the SEC. He began his career at Air Force.

• #1 – Senior PR Jaylen Johnson (6-2, 194) — Has never returned punts but is expected to be the team’s No. 1 receiving threat this season.

• #88 – Senior WR Jsi Hatfield (5-11, 173) — Returned 23 kicks with a 22-yard average and 1 touchdown (against Temple in 2022) during his career.

Strength of the East Carolina offense

The athleticism in the East Carolina backfield stands out. While, Ahlers was a great quarterback and is near the top in many of the program’s records, Garcia has been waiting in the wings, is mobile and possesses a big arm.

“He started one game in his career to this point, and that was against Navy when Ahler had a COVID test come back positive,” Myatt noted. “He did start against Navy as a true freshman, didn’t have a great game [going 10 of 23 passing in a 27-23 loss].”

However, Myatt noted, the coaching staff believes he can do everything Ahler did in his four seasons as East Carolina’s starter.

In addition, Harris, a featured player when healthy each of the last two seasons, is big and physical but also versatile. He can both run and catch out of the backfield, with just 5 less receptions than Michigan’s Donovan Edwards, who’s considered a great receiver out of the backfield, in 2021 and 2022 combined while playing in five fewer games.

The biggest number for the Pirates last season was turnovers, with the group finishing plus-12 in turnover margin. The offense gave the ball away only only 7 times in 13 games, ranking tied fourth in the country in both total and per game turnover margin. ECU head coach Mike Houston stressed the importance of taking care of the ball against Michigan earlier this week.

Weakness of the East Carolina offense

The East Carolina offense simply lacks experience all over, outside of Harris. Garcia has the physical tools, but he’s only started one game. Johnson is a proven, solid wideout, but the Pirates lost two 1,000-yard receivers and its quarterback from last year’s squad that ranked 16th nationally with 290.5 passing yards per game.

Additionally, the offensive line returns only two starters, and neither performed at a high level last season (in fact, Foote is the only one projected to start again this season).

“The offensive line is the biggest question mark, because there’s only one returning starter, but they’ve gotten some guys out of the transfer portal and got a new offensive line coach [Allen Mogridge],” Myatt said. “That unit is going to be kind of a determining factor as to whether they can continue to be successful.”

Strength of the East Carolina defense

East Carolina returns five starters on defense, and the strength of the unit is on the edges with Stephens and Morris, who are considered two of the better pass rushers in the AAC entering the season. Michigan, meanwhile, is still figuring out who its starting tackle will be on each side of the line, and building chemistry is still something the Wolverines will look to do once they get the pecking order figured out. At the least, this will be a somewhat solid test for the Maize and Blue.

Weakness of the East Carolina defense

East Carolina’s passing defense was abysmal last season, ranking 130th nationally with 292.8 yards allowed per contest. The group only averaged 2.2 sacks per game, ranking 63rd, couldn’t get off the field on third downs and allowed a lot of big plays.

Wood leads the back end, but his numbers in coverage are concerning. Two new cornerbacks are slated to start, including one who stands 5-foot-9. Not only do the Wolverines have the size advantage at the line of scrimmage, but Michigan should be able to get its passing game going.

“They’ve gotten some transfers in the secondary, some guys that have some past experience, but it’s somewhere else in another system,” Myatt pointed out. “Everybody is kind of waiting to see how that group performs, in terms of success this year.”

Myatt’s final score prediction

“Being a writer for ECU, I’m thinking in terms of an upset,” Myatt began. “I just think they’ll rise to the occasion, and maybe there will be a little uncertainty with Michigan’s coaching situation. That could play into East Carolina’s advantage. I like the fact that the clock doesn’t stop on first downs. I think a shorter clock favors an underdog. Who knows? People talk about Appalachian [State] going up there and winning several years ago, but I think this is a much better Michigan team. But I don’t like to pick against my teams.”

Prediction: East Carolina 35, Michigan 31