Previewing Michigan vs. TCU with a Horned Frogs media insider

By Clayton Sayfie

TheWolverine.com caught up with Steven Johnson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram for his insight on TCU ahead of their College Football Playoff matchup with Michigan Wolverines football in the Fiesta Bowl. Johnson broke down the Horned Frogs and offered his final score prediction. First, we take a look at the TCU starting lineup.

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TCU projected starters on offense

• Senior QB Max Duggan — He’s completed 239 of his 368 pass attempts (65 percent) for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns with 4 interceptions, while also rushing for 404 yards and 6 touchdowns on 112 attempts. The 6-2, 210-pounder ranks second in the country with 18.3 yards per attempt on throws of 20-plus air yards, with a nation’s best 18 touchdowns on such passes, per PFF. The Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year is averaging 6 yards per carry with 6 touchdowns on designed rush attempts, while adding 194 yards on scrambles.

• Junior RB Kendre Miller — He’s accumulated 1,343 rushing yards (18th-most in the country) and 17 touchdowns (tied seventh) with 6.2 yards per carry. Miller is averaging 6.2 yards per carry between the tackles, too, with 763 of his rushing yards coming on inside runs.

• Junior WR Quentin Johnston — The 6-4, 215-pounder leads the team with 53 catches for 903 yards and 5 touchdowns. All 5 of the first-team All-Big 12 honoree’s scores have come on passes of 20-plus air yards. ESPN.com’s Mel Kiper Jr. listed him as the No. 9 overall prospect for the 2023 NFL Draft.

• Junior WR Savion Williams — The 6-5, 215-pounder is fourth on the team with 29 catches for 392 yards and 4 touchdowns.

• Senior WR Derius Davis — The slot receiver has reeled in 35 catches for 418 yards and 5 touchdowns. Senior Taye Barber also sees a significant amount of time out of the slot, and he checks in second 593 yards and 4 touchdowns on 34 grabs.

• Senior TE Jared Wiley — He’s hauled in 21 receptions for 225 yards and 4 touchdowns. His 80.6 overall PFF rating ranks fourth on the TCU offense.

• Junior LT Brandon Coleman — The 6-6, 325-pounder has opened 19 career contests. His 79.3 overall PFF grade ranks fifth on the TCU offense, and his 78.9 run-blocking rating is the second-best on the unit. He’s allowed a team-high 25 pressures, including 3 sacks and 8 quarterback hits.

• Senior LG Steve Avila — The 6-4, 330-pounder has started 33 games during his career and was named a consensus All-American this season, the Horned Frogs’ first player to earn that distinction since 2015. The team captain was also named first-team All-Big 12 and the league’s Offensive Lineman of the Year. He has a 72.1 overall PFF grade and 82.1 pass-blocking mark. The latter leads the team. He’s given up just 10 pressures and no sacks.

• Senior C Alan Ali — The 6-5, 300-pounder transferred from SMU ahead of this season. The Big 12 Offensive Newcomer of the Year started 52 games during his college career, including all 13 at center for the Horned Frogs this year. He boasts a 66.9 overall PFF rating with 17 pressures and 2 sacks allowed.

• Senior RG Wes Harris — The 6-4, 315-pounder has started 26 career outings. He’s posted a 59.1 overall PFF rating with 10 pressures and 1 sack yielded.

• Junior RT Andrew Coker — The 6-7, 315-pounder has opened 33 career contests. He has a 69.4 overall PFF grade and has given up 19 pressures and 2 sacks.

TCU projected starters on defense

• Freshman NT Damonic Williams — The 6-2, 320-pounder has registered 27 tackles, including 4.5 for loss and 1.5 sacks, and 1 forced fumble.

• Senior DE Dylan Horton — The 6-4, 275-pounder has 38 tackles, 9.5 stops for loss, 6 sacks, 3 pass breakups and 6 quarterback hurries. He leads the team with 41 pressures. He lines up anywhere from the B gap to the edge position, a versatile piece.

• Senior DE Terrell Cooper — The 6-2, 280-pounder also lines up all over the defensive line, but plays more snaps on the interior than Horton. He’s posted 17 tackles, 3 stops for loss, a half-sack, 1 pass breakup, 1 quarterback hurry and 1 forced fumble with 6 pressures.

• Senior LB Dee Winters — The 6-1, 230-pounder is fourth on the team with 65 tackles, while leading TCU with 11.2 stops for loss and 7.5 sacks. He’s added 7 quarterback hurries, 1 pass breakup, 1 forced fumble and 24 pressures. He plays off the line of scrimmage for the most part, but does line up at the edge rusher spot at times.

• Junior LB Jamoi Hodge — He’s third on TCU with 70 tackles, including 8 for loss and 4.5 sacks, with 1 interception, 2 pass breakups and 3 quarterback hurries with 17 pressures. He’s allowed 12 receptions for 206 yards and no touchdowns on 18 targets in coverage.

• Junior LB Johnny Hodges — He leads the team with 76 tackles, adding 7.5 stops for loss, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup and 1 quarterback hurry with 12 pressures. He’s allowed 18 receptions for 190 yards and no touchdowns on 23 targets in coverage.

• Senior NB Millard Bradford — He’s generated 43 tackles, 1.5 stops for loss, 6 pass breakups and 1 interception. He’s allowed 11 receptions for 142 yards and no touchdowns on 17 targets.

• Senior CB Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson — The 2022 Jim Thorpe Award winner totaled 42 tackles, 2 stops for loss, 11 pass breakups, 3 interceptions and 1 forced fumble. He’s been targeted a team-high 70 times in coverage, giving up 26 catches for 318 yards and 1 touchdown.

• Junior CB Josh Newton — He’s recorded 31 tackles, 2 stops for loss, 12 pass breakups and 3 interceptions, while allowing 22 receptions for 277 yards and 4 touchdowns on 64 targets.

• Junior S Mark Perry — He’s second on the TCU defense with 74 tackles, including 6 behind the line of scrimmage, with 2 pass breakups. He’s allowed 20 catches for 249 yards and 5 touchdowns on 32 targets.

• Junior S Abe Camara — He’s recorded 44 tackles, 5 pass breakups, 1 interception and 1 forced fumble, while allowing 18 receptions for 227 yards and 1 touchdown on 36 targets.

TCU specialists

• Senior K Griffin Kell — He’s made 16 of his 18 field goal attempts this season with a 64-yard long. The first-team All-Big 12 standout is 8-of-9 on boots between 30 and 39 yards and 8-of-9 from 40-plus yards.

• Senior P Jordy Sandy — The Australian is averaging 39.6 yards per punt with 3 of 50-plus yards and 15 that pinned the opponent inside their 20-yard line. His long is 59 yards.

• Senior PR/KR Derius Davis — The first-team All-Big 12 performer as a returner has brought back 17 punts for 237 yards and 2 touchdowns and returned 18 kicks with a 20.1-yard average and 57-yard long.

Strength of TCU offense

The TCU offense is more than just Duggan. He was a Heisman Trophy finalist, but the group has plenty of weapons. Six different receivers have caught 3 or more touchdown passes, and Miller is one of the top running backs in the Big 12. Head coach Sonny Dykes implied this week that the Horned Frogs have more speed than Michigan but can also play a physical brand of football.

“I would say balance and speed,” Johnson said of the strength of the unit. “It’s technically an air raid offense, but the Horned Frogs love to establish the run game and it makes life easier for Max Duggan.

“In terms of speed, TCU has multiple guys that can take a simple play and make it a 40-plus yard game. Quentin Johnston is a first-round NFL draft pick, Kendre Miller doesn’t get enough love nationally as a RB after scoring in every game and rushing for 1,300 yards.

“The offensive line also has an All-American in Steve Avila and another dynamic X-Factor in Derius Davis. Davis is explosive in the pass and return game.”

Concerns for TCU offense

The Big 10 and Big 12 clash in terms of style. Many Big 12 teams air the ball out, while the Big 10 is largely built on running the ball and stopping the run.

Michigan has stopped the run at an elite level this season, with only five opponents registering more than 100 rushing yards. The Wolverines are holding opposing offenses to just 2.9 yards per carry and have given up just 7 rushing scores. TCU has a strong run game, ranking 25th nationally with 200 yards per game, but it’ll be a big challenge to hold the line of scrimmage against Michigan’s defensive front.

“I don’t think there is a weakness specifically for TCU — they’re good to great in every unit — but like with any offense it’ll come down to if they can win the battle at the line of scrimmage,” Johnson explained. “It doesn’t matter how explosive your skill guys are if you can’t block. That hasn’t been a problem for the Horned Frogs this year with the exception of the Texas game and early in the Texas Tech game.

“TCU’s offensive tackles aren’t quite as good as the interior of the OL, so if there is a weakness it’s probably there.”

Adjustments for TCU 3-3-5 defense?

TCU defensive coordinator Joe Gillespie runs a 3-3-5 defense, and the Horned Frogs have been susceptible to allowing opposing run games to get going. They give up 149.5 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry on average, with both marks ranking in the 60s nationally.

Johnson said the 3-3-5 front may look a little different most of the time, with the Horned Frogs adjusting to Michigan’s smash-mouth offense. He pushed back on there being concerns for the defense going against sophomore running back Donovan Edwards and the Joe Moore Award winning offensive line.

“I would say no in terms of concern, not because I think TCU will easily shut the Michigan run game down (I don’t), but I believe the Frogs have some confidence they’ll be able to hold up after facing Texas and Kansas State multiple times,” Johnson said. “I will be surprised if TCU stays in base 3-3-5 and expect OLBs Dee Winters and Johnny Hodges to spend a lot of time near the line of scrimmage as an extra edge rusher.

“I would expect TCU’s defense will resemble more of a 4-2-5 look and maybe even a standard 4-3 depending on how big Michigan goes with its offensive personnel. TCU knows what it needs to do, it’s just about whether they can hold up physically for four quarters.”

Kansas State racked up 363 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns in two matchups this season, showing that TCU’s run defense has failed to shut down a good run game (the Wildcats slot 16th in the nation with 209.6 rushing yards per game). However, Texas, which ranks 27th in the country with 199.6 rushing yards per game, was held by TCU to only 28 rushing yards.

What TCU defense does best

TCU may not be one of the country’s elite defenses on a play-to-play basis, ranking 74th in total defense and 57th in scoring defense, but it does notch turnovers. The Horned Frogs are 17th in average turnover margin per game (+0.69) and have 19 takeaways on the year (14 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries).

“After the season opener at Colorado, TCU forced a turnover in 11 straight games,” Johnson explained. “Their corners, Tre Hodges-Tomlinson (Thorpe winner) and Josh Newton (All-Big 12) were the best corner duo in the Big 12 and they’re both really good and physical in coverage. TCU’s defense isn’t big, but has speed with Winters, nickel safety Millard Bradford and safety Mark Perry.”

Johnson’s prediction

“I think TCU has a great chance to pull this off, but it’s always hard to project how these teams in different conferences will match up physically,” Johnson began. “Michigan has the best offensive line TCU has faced, and I think the Wolverines will eventually win the battle up front due to a TCU defensive line that has been hit or miss depending on the opponent.

“Seeing how Baylor and K-State (Big 12 title game) were able to have big games on the ground late in the year makes me think Michigan will also have similar success.

“It’s another dramatic game, but as of today I think Michigan pulls it out.”

Prediction: Michigan 31, TCU 27