Preview and prediction: Michigan basketball at Purdue

Michigan Wolverines basketball is set to take on Purdue Saturday afternoon in West Lafayette.

U-M is coming off a comeback win over Nebraska, while Purdue has won four straight games, including a Wednesday win over Minnesota, and is No. 4 in the country.

Here is everything you need to know before tip, including a breakdown of key players, analysis on the matchup, our final score prediction and more.

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Game Information: Michigan At Purdue

Date: Saturday, Feb. 5, 2022

Time: 2:37 p.m. ET

Venue: Mackey Arena (West Lafayette, Ind.)

Channel: FOX

On The Call: Tim Brando (play-by-play) and Nick Bahe (color)

Radio: Detroit: WWJ-Radio (950 AM) | Ann Arbor: WWWW (102.9 FM)| Grand Rapids: WOOD (106.9 FM) | Stream: MGoBlue.com

On The Call: Brian Boesch (play-by-play) and Terry Mills (color)

Betting Line: Purdue -9.5, over 146

Kenpom Prediction: Purdue 81, Michigan 70

Clayton Sayfie Prediction (15-4 ATS): Purdue 83, Michigan 71

Michigan Projected Starters

• #12 – Fifth-year senior guard DeVante’ Jones (6-1, 200) — The Coastal Carolina transfer and reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year is averaging 9.1 points, 3.8 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.8 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from long range.

• #55 – Fifth-year senior guard Eli Brooks (6-1, 185) — The team captain generates 11.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists per outing, while shooting 42.2 percent overall and 38 percent from three.

• #22 – Freshman guard/forward Caleb Houstan (6-8, 205) — The former five-star recruit is registering 10.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per clash, while shooting 40.5 percent from the field and 35.6 percent from long range.

• #14 – Freshman forward Moussa Diabate (6-11, 210) — Averaging nine points and 6.3 rebounds per tilt … Made 63-of-112 shot attempts (56.3 percent) and is 33-of-53 from the free throw line.

• #1 – Sophomore center Hunter Dickinson (7-1, 260) — The 2021 second-team All-American is leading the team with 17.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, with 40 assists … Shooting 59.5 percent from the field and has made nine of his 26 three-point attempts.

Michigan Key Bench Contributors

• #23 – Junior forward Brandon Johns Jr. (6-8, 240) — The East Lansing native is notching 4.6 points and 2.4 boards per outing, while shooting 43.3 percent from the field and 7-of-20 from three-point range.

• #5 – Sophomore forward Terrance Williams II (6-7, 230) — Playing 15.7 minutes per contest at the ‘3’ and ‘4’ positions, while averaging 4.8 points and 2.7 rebounds, and shooting 42.9 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from long range.

• #10 – Freshman guard Frankie Collins (6-1, 185) — Averaging 11.8 minutes per appearance … Posts 3.3 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per outing and shoots 41.3 percent from the field … Is 2-of-10 from long range.

Purdue Projected Starters

• #23 – Sophomore guard Jaden Ivey (6-4, 195) — The USA Basketball star is leading the Boilermakers with 17 points per game, while adding 5.1 rebounds and three assists … Shoots 48 percent from the field and 43.6 percent from beyond the three-point arc … Has scored over 20 points in three of his last four games … Great in transition, generating 1.144 points per play, as a spot-up player (0.971 PPP) and the pick-and-roll ball handler (0.91 PPP, running 55.8 percent of the team’s ball screens).

• #11 – Junior guard Isaiah Thompson (6-1, 160) — Averages 5.7 points and 1.2 rebounds per game, while connecting on 41.5 percent of his overall looks and 40.8 percent of his three-point attempts … Used as a spot-up shooter, where he produces 1.288 points per possession, and 80.3 percent of his field goal attempts are jump shots.

• #55 – Senior guard Sasha Stefanovic (6-5, 205) — Puts up 12.3 points and 2.7 rebounds per contest, while hitting 43.8 percent of his shots from the field and 42.1 percent of his triple tries (ranks 148th in the sport and his 38.7 percent three-point shooting clip during Big Ten play slots 13th in the league) … 86.9 percent of his field goal attempts are jump shots — and he makes those at a 40.5-percent clip … Moves around a lot off the ball and comes off screens.

• #0 – Sophomore forward Mason Gillis (6-6, 230) — The power forward is averaging 7.1 points and 4.1 rebounds per outing, while shooting 56.9 percent from the field and 52.3 percent from long range (23-of-44) … Used as a spot-up shooter and cutter, and 13.4 percent of his points have come on put-backs, with his 7.1 offensive rebounding percentage during conference play ranking 20th in the league.

• #15 – Sophomore center Zach Edey (7-4, 295) — A teammate of Houstan with Team Canada, he’s posting 15 points and 7.5 rebounds per game in just 18.7 minutes of action … Shoots 70.2 percent from the field and hasn’t attempted a three-pointer (16th nationally in two-point field goal percentage) … Rebounds 19.1 percent of Purdue’s missed shots when he’s on the floor, and 19.8 percent of his points come on put-backs … Generates 1.167 points per play on post-ups (94th percentile in the country).

Key Bench Players

• #50 – Senior forward Trevion Williams (6-10, 255) — Splits time with Edey, and the two are just about never on the floor together … Posts 12.1 points and 8.2 rebounds per clash, while shooting 55.7 percent overall … He’s made three of his eight three-point attempts on the season … Generates 0.905 points per post-up.

• #2 – Senior guard Eric Hunter (6-4, 175) — Registers five points and 1.6 rebounds per game, while shooting 47.1 percent overall and 43.2 percent from long range (16-of-37).

• #3 – Freshman forward Caleb Furst (6-10, 230) — Plays 17.1 minutes per game at the ‘4’ spot … Produces 4.9 points and 4.2 rebounds per clash, while connecting on 59.4 percent from the field and 7-of-17 from beyond the arc.

Matchup Breakdown

• Purdue is the most efficient offensive team in the country, according to Kenpom, scoring 1.257 points per possession. The Boilermakers are second in effective field goal percentage (59.2), seventh in offensive rebounding percentage (37), second in three-point field goal percentage (41.6) and seventh in two-point field goal percentage (57).

Purdue’s offense is predicated on posting up its two elite big men — Zach Edey and Trevion Williams. The Boilermakers are ranked sixth in the country in post-up efficiency, with 1.095 points per possession (including passes) while running the second-most post-ups (on 25.2 percent of its trips).

What makes the Purdue offense great, though, is its weapons around the two bigs, specifically when it comes to three-point shooting. Seven Boilermakers who have attempted more than 15 three-pointers are shooting over 40 percent from deep, including Ivey and Stefanovic, who are both top 10 in the Big Ten in made triples. The Boilermakers run their shooters around screens off the ball, requiring significant discipline — something Michigan has lacked at times — to slow them down.

• Purdue is just average on the defensive end. It has allowed over 1.09 points per possession in each of the last three games, including to a less-than-stellar Minnesota offense Wednesday, and ranks 91st in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Opponents are shooting 33.3 percent from long range (167th nationally) and 48 percent on two-pointers (48 percent), with the latter mark being surprising due to the Boilermakers’ size. Purdue is suspect against ball-screen action, ranking in the nation’s 20th percentile while yielding 0.905 points per possession. The Boilermakers allow opponents to attempt 42.8 percent of their field goal attempts from beyond the arc, meaning there will be opportunity for open jumpers from the outside.