Reviewing The Wolfpacker's win-loss projections for NC State football

In August, The Wolfpacker made its picks for how the NC State football season would unfold from a game-by-game standpoint.

How did it do?

Here’s a look:

Sept. 2 vs. South Florida: We noted that while South Florida expected to be much improved from a roster numbers standpoint alone after a difficult 1-8 season in 2020, six of the Bulls losses were by double digits and five by at least 20 points.

Thus we anticipated the NC State football opener to go the Wolfpack’s way, and it did decisively, 45-0.

It ended up being another long season for USF, who went just 2-10 with one of those victories being over Florida A&M.

Sept. 11 at Mississippi State: Fans on the Wolves’ Den message board did not necessarily appreciate our rationale for why we picked NC State to come up short.

We noted that NC State football was just 2-9 against SEC teams since a 1994 Peach Bowl win over the same Bulldogs program. Those two wins were against South Carolina in 1999 in a tropical storm and a 2016 triumph over Vanderbilt in the Independence Bowl.

In what was probably the Pack’s worst performance of the season, NC State fell 24-10 to a Mississippi State team that ended up a solid 7-5 overall in the SEC and playing Texas Tech Tuesday night in the Liberty Bowl.

NC State will host Texas Tech next fall.

Set. 18 vs. Furman: No reason was needed to explain why we picked the Pack to win handily, which it did, 45-7.

The Paladins finished the regular season with a 6-5 record in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS).

Sept. 25 vs. Clemson: We were not wrong in suggesting that getting the Tigers earlier in the season, with all its new names on offense, may be advantageous. But we were wrong in not predicting NC State football would take advantage of that opportunity.

We had the Pack falling to 2-2, when in reality it improved to 3-1 with a 27-21 double-overtime win over Clemson, who indeed closed strong to finish 9-3 on the season themselves and ranked No. 19 in the final College Football Playoffs poll.

Oct. 2 vs. Louisiana Tech: We suggested that the Bulldogs would keep it close for a half before NC State pulls away.

That was partially right.

Louisiana Tech did keep it close for a half, but the Wolfpack never pulled away. NC State did hold onto for a 34-27 win over a LaTech team that surprisingly struggled the rest of the season to finish 3-9 and have a coaching change in the offseason.

Oct. 16 at Boston College: At the time, the game set up like the crucial contest we predicted. We projected that NC State’s defense would rise up to the occasion and pull off a significant victory.

A special teams touchdown helped spark a decisive second half in which NC State rolled to a 33-6 triumph against an Eagles team playing with backup quarterback Dennis Grosel.

The injury to starter Phil Jurkovec clearly influenced BC, who went 6-6, including 2-6 in the ACC, before it canceled a planned game in the Military Bowl against East Carolina, next year’s opener for NC State football.

Oct. 23 at Miami: We predicted the Miami quarterback would be a thorn in NC State’s side in a Hurricanes win.

Much of that was true, but the thought was it would be Miami starter D’Eriq King. Instead, the QB was trash-talking freshman Tyler Van Dyke, who backed up his pregame rhetoric by throwing for 325 yards and four touchdowns in a heartbreaking 31-30 loss for the Wolfpack.

Miami would finish the year 7-5 overall and 5-3 in the league, but dropped out of the Sun Bowl showdown with Washington State.

Oct. 30 vs. Louisville: The pick was for NC State to beat what we expected to be an improved Cards team and get a “sneaky important win.”

The Wolfpack was the only one of Louisville’s four ACC losses to be by more than six points. NC State controlled the fourth quarter in a 28-13 victory.

Louisville finished 6-6 overall and 4-4 in the league, and is playing Air Force in the ServPro First Responder Bowl Tuesday.

Nov. 6 at Florida State: Recalling the significant gap between NC State football and the Seminoles in a 2020 game at Carter-Finley Stadium, the suggestion was that while rebuilding FSU should be improved, it’s hard to see that difference being closed in a year’s time and in a new venue.

That was the case.

Florida State kept it competitive for a while, but eventually NC State’s big plays gave it a 28-14 win. FSU closed the year 5-7 overall and 4-4 in the conference.

Nov. 13 at Wake Forest: Rehashing the painful stat that NC State football was entering this season 2-10 in its last 12 outings in Winston-Salem, we went with a loss in a pick that was also not popular on The Wolves’ Den message board.

Turned out the Deacons had its best team under head coach Dave Clawson and essentially won the Atlantic on this evening with a 45-42 win.

The Deacons are 10-3 overall and went 7-1 in the ACC before losing the league title game to Pittsburgh. It will play Rutgers, a replacement opponent, in the Gator Bowl on Dec. 31.

Nov. 20 vs. Syracuse: The projection was that NC State football would take out some frustration in a lopsided win, and that they did. After a slow start, a big second quarter paved the way for a 41-17 Wolfpack win.

Syracuse would end the season with a 5-7 record, including 2-6 in the ACC.

Nov. 26 vs. UNC: Perhaps our boldest pick was that NC State football would get some revenge on its archrival after a pair of lopsided losses in the series.

That happened, in the most shocking fashion, with the Wolfpack overcoming a late 30-21 deficit to win 34-30 over a stunned UNC squad that closed the regular season a disappointing 6-6 overall and 3-5 in the conference.

The Heels will play South Carolina in Thursday’s Belk Bowl.

Final verdict: We will pat ourselves on the back.

We thought NC State football would go 8-4 with a 5-3 mark in the ACC. We correctly predicted every game except the double-overtime triumph over Clemson.

Not bad.

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