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NC State opens as favorite in regular season finale vs. UNC

image_6483441 (3)by: Noah Fleischman14 hours agofleischman_noah
Justin Joly
Nov 21, 2025; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA; NC State Wolfpack tight end Justin Joly (7) celebrates his touchdown to win the game during the second half of the game against Florida State Seminoles at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

After getting back in the win column with a 21-11 win over Florida State to earn bowl eligibility in the penultimate regular season game of the year, NC State is set to close out its home slate against North Carolina on Saturday night at Carter-Finley Stadium. 

The Wolfpack, which will face off with Bill Belichick for the first time ever, is a 7.5-point favorite going into game week against the Tar Heels, according to the Action Network. UNC, after all, has lost six of its last eight games — including at Wake Forest and home against Duke in each of the last two weeks. 

NC State (6-5, 3-4 ACC) is 5-6 against the spread this season. The Wolfpack most recently covered as a 5.5-point home underdog with its 10-point win over the Seminoles this past week. UNC, meanwhile, is also 5-6 against the spread this season. 

Sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey will lead NC State’s offense into the regular season finale as he has thrown for 2,684 yards with 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions on a 69.6 percent completion rate. 

While Bailey is set to square off with the Tar Heels, he will be aided by redshirt sophomore running back Hollywood Smothers, the ACC’s leading rusher with 907 yards and six touchdowns on 148 attempts as he’s averaging 6.1 yards per carry. 

In addition to Smothers, the Wolfpack’s wide receiving corps is paced by sophomore Terrell Anderson, who has posted 36 receptions for 596 yards and five scores. Senior tight end Justin Joly, meanwhile, has provided a big-bodied target for Bailey to find over the middle with his team-best 42 catches for 438 yards and six touchdowns. 

Defensively, meanwhile, graduate linebacker Caden Fordham has a career-best 118 total tackles; he leads all Power Conference players in that statistic. He has 51 solo stops, while adding 2.5 sacks. 

Graduate defensive end Sabastian Harsh is the Wolfpack’s top pass rusher with 2.5 sacks to go with 35 total quarterback pressures as he has logged 36 total tackles in his first season in Raleigh.