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Where NC State baseball stands in NCAA Tournament projections entering final weekend

image_6483441 (3)by: Noah Fleischman05/14/25fleischman_noah
Alex Sosa NC State
NC State DH Alex Sosa celebrates after hitting a three-run home run in the ACC Tournament at Truist Field. (Photo credit: ACC Communications)

NC State went into last weekend with a prime opportunity to win another top-five series to boost its NCAA Tournament hosting resume. But after splitting the first two games at No. 4 UNC, the rubber match was rained out following a more than four-hour weather delay. 

Despite losing the chance to play the Tar Heels for a third time, the Wolfpack moved up three spots in this week’s D1Baseball top 25, while it re-entered the NCAA RPI’s top-30 at No. 25. While the 13th-ranked Pack has an opportunity to win the ACC regular season title this weekend, it still appears to be on the outside looking in at a firm hosting spot as a national seed bubble team. 

Here’s the latest look at NC State’s NCAA Tournament projections and its updated postseason resume.

Where does NC State project?

Baseball America slotted the Wolfpack the 2-seed in the Conway Regional, hosted by No. 9 national seed Coastal Carolina. NC State would face Mississippi State in the opening game, while High Point would be in the field as well. The winner of that weekend would advance to play the winner of the Chapel Hill Regional, hosted by No. 8 UNC.

D1Baseball, meanwhile, projected NC State the No. 15 national seed to host the Raleigh Regional for the second straight season. The Pack would face High Point in the first game, while  Florida, who eliminated the Pack in Omaha last year, and UConn rounded out the group. The winner would face the top team from the Baton Rouge Regional, hosted by No. 2 LSU.

Rounding out the projections is On3’s Jonathan Wagner, who put the Wolfpack as the 2-seed in the Los Angeles Regional, hosted by No. 9 UCLA. He had NC State playing Arizona State to open the weekend, while Sacramento State would also be in the field. The winner of that pod would face the top squad from the Fayetteville Regional, hosted by No. 8  Arkansas.

NCAA Tournament Resume

NC State’s 8-5 win at UNC on Friday night helped move the Pack within striking distance in the NCAA’s RPI. The committee has placed teams outside the top 16 of the RPI as hosts, giving the Wolfpack a chance to utilize its 26th-best strength of schedule to its advantage. 

The only issue is it might not have enough Quad 1 wins to break through the hosting bubble. NC State is 7-8 against Q1 teams, while it’s 9-2 in Q2, 6-4 in Q3 and 10-2 in Q4. 

Wolfpack skipper Elliott Avent, who’s in his 29th season at the helm of the program, believed that his team has done enough to claim a national seed to welcome a regional back to Doak Field.

“I think we should be hosting,” Avent said last Friday in Chapel Hill. “I think we’ll have five or six teams in the ACC hosting in the NCAAs and I think we’ll be one of those teams, but we’ve got a long way to go.”

The Wolfpack does not have any Quad 1 opportunities left on its regular season schedule. NC State hosts Stanford this weekend, and a sweep over the Cardinal with one Florida State loss would give the Wolfpack its first ACC regular season crown since 1986. 

Should the Pack win the league to earn the ACC tournament No. 1 seed, that should be more than enough to garner an NCAA Regional.

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