Skip to main content
Ole Miss

How does Ole Miss' 5-0 start alter ESPN's FPI win probabilities for its remaining games?

11by: Jake Thompson3 hours agoJakeThompsonOn3
Syndication: The Clarion-Ledger
LSU offense prepares to snap the ball during a college football game between Ole Miss and LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., on Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025. Ole Miss defeated LSU 24-19. Mandatory credit: © Ayrton Breckenridge/Clarion Ledger / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The first half of the season could not have gone better for No. 4 Ole Miss. A perfect September capped by its 24-19 win over LSU last weekend has set up a potentially special back-end to the 2025 schedule.

With three Southeastern Conference wins under their belt the Rebels cleared one of their major hurdles on this year’s slate, being the Tigers. Victories over Kentucky and Arkansas were also potential landmines avoided.

But what about the final seven games of the season and their chances of victory?

With the strong start ESPN’s Football Power Index has altered the win probabilities of the final seven contests, some in a major way.

In August Rebel Grove posted all of the 12 win probabilities before the season started. Ole Miss has favorable chances in all but one of the games. That one being at Georgia on October 18. The Bulldogs were given a 74 percent chance to secure victory, but after their loss to Alabama and the Rebels undefeated it has shifted 14 points towards the visiting team.

Ole Miss still remains favored in the other six remaining games. After its game against Washington State next week, which the Rebels are now given over a 98 percent chance to win, the next largest win probability is against The Citadel on November 8 where they have a 99 percent chance to win.

Among the other four SEC games after Georgia, the game at Norman the week after remains the closest margin to a 50-50 toss up probability.

The Sooners 4-0 start has made the win probability shift six points towards them.

Below are the current win probabilities from ESPN’s FPI for the remaining seven Ole Miss games

  • Washington State (October 11) – OM 98.4 percent (+2.2)
  • at Georgia (October 18) – UGA 60.6 percent (-13.4)
  • at Oklahoma (October 25) – OM 53 percent (-3.3)
  • vs. South Carolina (November 1) – OM 80.2 percent (+22.8)
  • vs. The Citadel (November 8) – OM 99 percent
  • vs. Florida (November 15) – OM 82.7 percent (+23.9)
  • at Mississippi St. (November 28) – OM 77.4 percent (-0.8)

You may also like