Rebel Chalk Talk: Ole Miss at Kentucky

Eric Tillman is an Ole Miss graduate who will be a contributor to Rebel Grove during football season. He has more than 25 years of football experience working in the NFL and CFL. As a Canadian Football League GM, his teams played in six Grey Cups, winning three. He spent eight years serving as Executive Director of the Senior Bowl in Mobile. His journalism background includes four years of working in national television and radio in Canada.

Welcome to the first Rebel Chalk Talk. Enjoy!

Certain football phrases are common coach speak and one of the most oft expressed is, “Have a short memory,” meaning, of course, mistakes happen, but move on to the next play.  It’s a wise adage, but, admittedly, sometimes easier said than done. 

In fact, I suspect this week’s trip to Lexington is one where Lane Kiffin probably hasn’t practiced what he preached when it comes to “short memories,” given the pain from last September’s impactful 20-17 loss to the Kentucky Wildcats.

To be clear, that’s not a criticism.  In fact, given the massive playoff ramifications of Kentucky’s upset win in 2024, it’s fully understandable to look back.

How did it happen?  How did an Ole Miss team that was off to a soaring 4-0 start last September, an early playoff favorite, averaging 55 points in the first four wins, stumble so badly, scoring only 17 points in that gut wrenching loss to the Wildcats?

Rest assured, this Ole Miss coaching staff has lived with those questions for over 300 days.  And, being highly competitive, we know Lane has spent hours and hours looking at film – preparing to be better versus the Wildcats – seeking the excellence that has led to a super impressive 39 wins over the past four seasons.

Film study is where coaches look for advantages – be it skill or scheme.  Billy Embody has asked me to do a weekly piece looking at some of what each coaching staff – Ole Miss and the opponent – might be seeing and what we, as fans, might be looking for each Saturday in the battle of personnel and X’s and O’s.  More generic than coaching clinic, given the forum, but looking for factors that may determine the weekly winners.

This game, of course, is even more unique because of last September.

Understandably, Lane is super proud of the program he’s built at Ole Miss, and wants his team to respond like an upper tier SEC program should.  So, I’m sure he and his coaching staff have been looking back at last year intently and also looking at the Kentucky-Toledo film with the same scrutiny, too.  It’s a balance of both because in this new NIL era, teams are often significantly different than the previous season.  That certainly appears to be the case with Kentucky in a couple of ways.

Admittedly, watching on television isn’t the same as film review, but a few general thoughts jumped out as Kentucky held on to beat the visiting Rockets, 24-16.

One difference is the Wildcats are smaller in the defensive front seven than they were last year, but UK appears to be more athletic. Quicker might be the better term and it caused problems for Toledo.  One thing is for sure:  Kentucky continues to be well coached on defense.  Mark Stoops and defensive coordinator, Brad White, are quality football coaches who get the best out of their personnel on that side of the ball.

Winning isn’t always pretty in every aspect, and, and, it’s stating the obvious to say Kentucky struggled at times last week offensively.  While accumulating only 305 yards of total offense versus a MAC opponent, it’s of note that 95 of those yards came on two plays.  Otherwise, the Wildcats were plodding and non-explosive all afternoon.  That may be their offensive reality in 2025.

One reason is two Wildcat receivers, each of whom significantly impacted last year’s win, are gone.

Barion Brown took his elite speed and bolted to LSU.  He is vividly remembered by Ole Miss fans for his game changing 63-yard reception on fourth and 10 in the final minutes.  That explosive play was a dagger to the heart and set up the winning UK touchdown.

Dane Key, more efficient than explosive, caught eight balls in Vaught-Hemingway, but he’s now a Nebraska Cornhusker.

One game is one game – and Toledo, which beat Mississippi State last year, is better than some may think.  But, watching via the SEC Network, Kentucky’s new receiving corps looked pretty pedestrian on Saturday.  Didn’t see them create much separation on routes, which certainly makes it challenging for a quarterback.  Without separation, the windows are tighter, and the quarterback’s throws have to be perfectly timed and more accurate.  Speaking of which, new starting QB, Zach Calzada, based on first impression, looks more like a game manager type.  Good size, an adequate arm, can make some yardage in the RPO game, and a solid player, but far from a next level prospect.  Saying that is not intended as a jab.  Every young man who starts in the SEC is worthy of respect, but few have the skill set of what Ole Miss has been blessed with in recent years – Matt Corral, Jaxson Dart and now Austin Simmons.

Can Ole Miss shut down, or significantly restrict this Kentucky offense?  I think so.

Let’s dive into the game a little deeper:

The talent disparity is real and it favors Ole Miss.  So, Kentucky has to try to manufacture some big plays early, or, if not, play it slow – as the old saying goes – “just hang around until the fourth quarter and try to find a way to win.”  The latter worked in 2024, but I don’t see that as the winning recipe this time.  Not with a resolute Lane Kiffin, who wants this one badly.

So what does Kentucky do?

If I’m Bush Hamden, UK OC, I might try to take advantage of the all new Ole Miss secondary early.  The talent is there, but not the continuity.  Not yet.  Chemistry sometimes takes a few games to develop.  So, with that many new faces among the Rebel secondary, there’s a chance for a communication issue or two – blown assignments.  We saw an example of that in Auburn’s secondary last Friday night when in the second quarter, via confusion, they let the Baylor slot receiver free release up the seam – uncovered – for a 33-yard touchdown in a fourth down situation.  

So, if I’m UK, I would script the first 12-15 plays in an aggressive fashion – with multiple shifting.  Utilize that shifting as a way to possibly create some confusion, and, if successful, a chance to hit a big play or two via assignment error or errors.  Just one blown assignment could flip the field on produce a big touchdown play, giving the Wildcats some early momentum and energizing the Commonwealth crowd.

If Kentucky tries the more traditional path of first down success, though, seeking second and six or better situations, I just don’t see that working.  It would be Stoops like to bleed the clock – often snapping at the 35, 36 or 37 second mark – hoping to methodically make three or four first downs, as UK attempts to burn the clock and keep Austin Simmons and company on the sidelines.  To be honest, if the Wildcats take that approach, I expect Ole Miss to play the run better than last week.  No doubt, that’s been a point of emphasis with Pete Golding in practice.

I’m older, so rest assured, Golding and his staff see far better than I do and via the Toledo film they’ve seen the lack of explosiveness in their opponent.  Accordingly, look for them to challenge Kentucky’s receivers with press man coverage, and to load the box with an extra defender to negate UK’s run game, while also forcing Calzada to be pin point accurate on would be quick RPO throws.  I have my doubts the UK pivot is up to that.

At times, football isn’t complicated: When you have better personnel, keep it simple and cut it loose.  Play fast.  And, man, does Golding have speed galore on D.

The dream scenario for Ole Miss, of course, is a couple of early Rebel stops, combined with a couple of first quarter scores.  With early separation on the scoreboard, Ole Miss could force Kentucky to abandon their desire for a turtle paced game.

As mentioned, Mark Stoops and his defensive coordinator, Brad White, do a heck of a job maximizing the talent they have.  So, if the UK offense isn’t producing, they have to win the chess match defensively.

This is where Lane, Charlie Weis, Joe Judge, etc, kick in.  With the benefit of an improved running game, this Ole Miss team could be hell to defend.  Could be.  The offensive line, with multiple new faces, needs to make a projected jump from game one to two.  As with the secondary, good communication is essential.  That’s such a hidden element of success in those two facets, or, on the flip side, lack thereof.

My expectation is Kentucky will try to utilize their quickness in the defensive front to their advantage with movement at the snap, as opposed to the traditional one on one game.  The Wildcats were disruptive on Saturday.  Accordingly, I’m sure offensive line coach John Garrison’s group has worked this week on slants, etc – to avoid giving up negative plays in the run game via Kentucky’s anticipated defensive creativity.

No doubt, Ole Miss will want to establish the run game early. Kewan Lacy and Logan Diggs are a talented duo.  This Rebel team appears to be capable of running the football far more effectively than in 2024. With talented backs and a size advantage up front, Ole Miss needs to lean on that smaller UK group and basically force the Wildcats to add an additional run defender near the line of scrimmage.  If successful in that strategy, Lane might have a chance to hit some big plays in the pass game.   

Speaking of if’s…

With a young quarterback like Austin Simmons, fans may see Kentucky utilize a few backside blitzes – be it corner, safety or linebacker.  With Stoops and staff being aggressive, that could create a big play momentum change, IF Simmons doesn’t recognize the pressure pre snap, leaving the Florida native vulnerable to a potential backside delivery hit – and fumble.  

With an inexperienced quarterback, sometimes holding the ball too long will give the defense a chance to seize the moment.  That’s certainly something to watch for in Lexington.  To win, Stoops knows his defense has to create turnovers and short field opportunities.

Blitzing, of course, does come with risk.  If Simmons gets rid of the ball quickly in a blitz situation, he’ll definitely – via numbers – have some big play potential and could really sting UK with a skinny post catch and run “to the house.” 

When in aggressive mode, one other way in which Lane and company could cause big problems for the Wildcats, would be to utilize a one by three formation to the boundary, with Harrison Wallace or De’Zhaun Stribling located to the field side – thus, making Kentucky choose their poison.  In that look, if the Wildcats keep an extra defender to the boundary, it allows Ole Miss to play pitch and catch with one of their big play guys having a lot of green grass (space) to operate in.  On the flip side, if UK goes lighter in the box, well, then “gash ’em” in the run game with downhill runs into the boundary.

All of that said, this next comment may fly in the face of the conventional Ole Miss aggressive offensive philosophy.  But, in the self critiquing process (in this case the 2024 loss), you have to see what don’t like admitting.  Specifically, the Ole Miss coaches may very well recognize they might have been too aggressive last year, given the amount of zone, etc, that Coach Stoops threw at them.  No doubt, he is great at taking stuff away by design.

Accepting that reality, sometimes the patient approach is the smart approach.  To use a baseball analogy, instead of swinging for the fences, beat ’em with singles.  In football, it’s called “take what they give you,” and it won’t surprise me at all if that’s the early play calling approach in Lexington from Lane and Charlie Weis, Jr.  Efficient production until you wear them down some.  Then, take the homerun shots.

No doubt, it will be a fun chess match.

The last element, of course, is special teams.  Kentucky was impressive versus Toledo, especially their cover units.  On the flip side,  Ole Miss’ depth and athleticism was on full display versus Georgia State.  If the Rebels are assignment sound again, their cover teams should be fine.  

In the return game, Wallace reminded some of Jason Armstead with his “hit it and split it” mentality – almost breaking a couple for what would have been big yardage.

Lucas Carneiro has All SEC potential at kicker and Oscar Bird averaged 44.5 per punt, including a solid job with his directional kicking.  All in all, at worst Ole Miss should play even on special teams.  I say that as a compliment to the Wildcats.  To their credit, Kentucky’s emphasis in that critical component was very apparent in week one. 

OPPOSING PLAYER TO WATCH:  Senior linebacker Alex Afari was all over the field versus Toledo, making nine tackles.  A former safety turned LB, he displayed both instincts and range.  NFL scouts would like for him to be bigger (listed at 6-2 225), but, in terms of the college game, he’s very impressive.  A native of Cincinnati, #3 may be a jersey often seen this weekend.

SUMMATION:  Lexington, Kentucky is one of the prettiest places in the South, but, for Rebel fans, expect the scoreboard to be equally beautiful if Ole Miss avoids turnovers, and, if the Rebel offensive line takes a step forward, handling UK’s disruptive quickness.

PREDICTION:  With a young Austin Simmons starting his first road game, and with Mark Stoops doing what he does best, we, as alluded to, might see a more efficient and less explosive approach to Ole Miss’ play calling.  Style points be damned – it’s about winning, right?  That’s all that matters and I believe the Rebels win do so comfortably Saturday afternoon.

OLE MISS 30  KENTUCKY 13