Analysis: Penn State, Michigan headed toward third-down crossroads

By Nate Bauer

Asked about JJ McCarthy at his Monday press conference, James Franklin started predictably. The Penn State head coach assessed Michigan’s quarterback in glowing terms, and deservedly so.

A junior in his second full season of starting experience, McCarthy has guided the Wolverines to the nation’s No. 5-ranked scoring offense, with its No. 2-ranked team passing efficiency numbers, and most importantly, a 9-0 record. A comprehensively impressive approach to the game, Franklin indicated, McCarthy presents problems for defenses. 

“I think he’s just a more experienced player. Always been able to make plays with his feet. He’s just improved. Kind of well-rounded,” Franklin said. “He’s throwing for a higher completion percentage. Doing a great job protecting the football. He can extend the plays and make big-time throws.”

The conditions within which McCarthy has made those plays this season is where Franklin sees a window of opportunity for his Nittany Lions, though.

“The biggest thing with them is they really have not been challenged,” Franklin continued. “They’ve had really good game control on offense and defense. They’re usually ahead on the scoreboard for the most part, and they’re usually ahead of the sticks on offense and defense.

“And when you’re able to do that, then you’re putting your quarterback or your guys in a very advantageous position as well. So that game control will be an important part of this game.”

Setting the stage

In so many intriguing ways, Franklin’s sentiment offers a crucial preview of Saturday. It will likely define Penn State’s successes and failures on both sides of the ball on Saturday. And, it starts with the identity Michigan has been able to establish for itself offensively this season.

The best place to start is a deeper look at who the Wolverines have been on third downs this season. Flatly, they haven’t had many of them, so far tallying a national-best 99 third down attempts on the season. For an offense with 201 total first downs, that only 56 have come as a result of third-down conversions is a telling component to the consistency they’ve shown moving the chains on first or second downs. They also have punted the third-least of any team this season at just 2.6 times per game.

(By comparison, Penn State has 135 third downs. The Nittany Lions have converted on 57 of them, out of 215 total first downs. Another 16 conversions have come on fourth downs. Michigan, alternatively, has just seven fourth-down conversions.)

This, at first glance, represents an opportunity for Penn State exceeding anything the Wolverines have faced thus far. The Nittany Lions have one of the best third-down defenses in college football, allowing conversions at just 28.7 percent. 

But, more importantly, they’ve forced their opponents into more third-down situations than anyone else nationally. They’ve done so 122 times thus far in nine games. A massive component that leads to disruption opportunities, Penn State has been highly proficient when teed up. 

Boasting home-field advantage in this game, the reverse of the conditions that plagued Penn State in its dismal third-down showing at Ohio Stadium three weeks ago, Franklin is counting on getting help to bolster the effort.

“I hope that the environment will also be something that’s going to be difficult and cause some challenges,” Franklin said. “When you can get penalties and get people behind the sticks, they have not had to play that way a whole lot this year. So that will be a big part in the game.”

Penn State, Michigan set for showdown

The issue for Franklin and Penn State, particularly in this scenario, is McCarthy. 

A number pointed to frequently this week is McCarthy’s performance on third downs this season. He’s completed 33 of 44 passes (75 percent) for 545 yards, averaging 12.4 yards per reception, with four touchdowns. Second only to his phenomenal first-down completion percentage of 79.8, McCarthy has been electric in nearly any third-down situation he’s been confronted by. 

On third downs of 6 or more yards, he’s completed 28 of 36 passes (77.8 percent) for 456 yards, taking sacks only three times. His runs in those situations have been less fruitful, losing yards on average on seven carries. 

The game within the game, those numbers are where Penn State could make an impact. Needing first to force Michigan into third downs that have been extremely infrequent this season, what happens there shapes up to change the game in either direction.

While limited in sample size at just 55 third down plays for McCarthy this season, he has taken four sacks and has had limited running success under the circumstances. If Penn State intends to maximize its chances of a win against Michigan on Saturday afternoon, those are the plays the Nittany Lions will need to force, and win.