Skip to main content
Penn State

Does Penn State have an 'easy' or 'difficult' schedule in 2025? Here's what some early previews say

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel06/19/25GregPickel
NCAA Football: Fiesta Bowl-Penn State at Boise State
Penn State Nittany Lions running back Nicholas Singleton (10) rushes for a touchdown against the Boise State Broncos during the second half in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

Penn State enters 2025 among the favorites to win the College Football Playoff this fall. The Lions, who who return plenty of starters to pair with emerging young players and transfer portal pickups to fill out this year’s depth chart, are seen by all as a top five team and by some as the preseason No. 1. Some of that is due to uncertainty across the country when it comes to roster turnover and quarterback battles elsewhere. Some of it is due to the fact that, like recent champs Michigan and Ohio State, a ton of draft-eligible players skipped leaving school early to get ot the NFL. And, some of it is due to the team’s schedule. Of the three reasons, how much of the proverbial pie that last one deserves is up for debate.

For starters, there is no disagreement that the team’s non-conference schedule is as light as they come. It features FCS Villanova in addition to Nevada and FIU, who are Nos. 126 and 129 out of 136 teams ranked in Bill Connelly’s post-spring SP+ ratings for ESPN. So, by default, Penn State’s overall strength of schedule takes a hit when that trio makes up a quarter of the 12-game regular season schedule. But, is the program’s preseason SOS as bad as that group may make it appear? Analysts are mixed on the topic.

Connelly’s metrics have Penn State ranked No. 29 in strength of schedule as of March 5. It’s unclear how much, if at all, the spring transfer portal window might have changed that. College Football News’ May rankings put the Lions at No. 61. And Phil Steele’s just-published annual preseason magazine splits those two. It ranks the team’s 2025 regular season slate of games as the 37th-toughest in the country.

Why are there discrepancies about the strength of schedule for Penn State in 2025?

More models, like ESPN’s Football Power Index resume rankings, will come out later this summer to offer new input on this question before the season starts in August. However, given what we already know, it’s not difficult to understand why some might perceive the Penn State schedule as easy, while others might view it as more challenging than it appears.

For yet another year, there only appear to be two true toss-up games on the schedule. We define those as games in which the Lions either won’t be favored at all or will be favored but by less than a touchdown. They are a four-point favorite against Oregon in September and a four-point underdog against Ohio State in November. Otherwise, head coach James Franklin’s team should be a double-digit favorite in every game it plays. And, it will be expected to win a majority of them by two touchdowns or more. Is that because the team’s schedule is too easy? Or, is it because the Lions, with what they return and what they add, are simply that much better than the majority of the teams they do or could face this year?

That’s the question that will decide where Penn State ultimately ends up in the first Associated Press Top 25. It will be released in mid-August. As of mid-June, at least, the debate rages on as the preseason discourse continues.

You may also like