ESPN FPI update: Did Penn State's 2025 outlook get worse during the bye week?

Penn State did not move in the latest ESPN FPI Power rankings following its final bye week of the season. But, it still got bad news about its long-term outlook in 2025 anyway.

The new Football Power Index is out following Week 9 of the college football season. For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Interim head coach Terry Smith’s team is still ranked No. 21, which is the same as last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed as follows:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 26:

Regular season record projection: 5.7-6.3 ➡️ 5.6-6.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 59.2 percent ➡️ 55 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

Penn State is likely to drop its next two games, which means this piece will only continue to be more negative than positive, in all likelihood, moving forward. The Lions are going to be heavy underdogs against Ohio State and Indiana. Barring a major upset of either or both, they would then have to win their final three games — at Michigan State, against Nebraska, and at Rutgers — to make a bowl game. Their chances of doing so are not slim to none yet but not a slam dunk, either.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 8:

1 Ohio State

2 Indiana

3 Oregon

4 Alabama

5 Notre Dame

6 Georgia

7 Texas

8 Texas A&M

9 USC

10 Miami

21 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 19:

Regular season record projection: 6-6 ➡️ 5.7-6.3

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 0.6 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent ➡️ 59.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where things stood after Northwestern?

Regular season record projection: 7.2-4.8 ➡️ 6-6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.0 percent ➡️ 0.6 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 1.9 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where did things stand after UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent