ESPN FPI update has new outlook for Penn State making a bowl game

Will Penn State finish the 2025 college football season by winning out? A new Football Power Index is out following Week 12 of the college football season. And it thinks that is a better than average possibility.

Interim head coach Terry Smith’s team is now ranked No. 20. That is up one spot from where it was a week ago.

First, for those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

The Lions’ long-term outlook is as follows:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Nov. 16

Regular season record projection: 5.2-6.8 ➡️ 5.5-6.5

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 40 percent ➡️ 55.8 percent

Odds of winning six games: 40 percent ➡️ 55.8 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

Penn State is 11 spots ahead of Nebraska and 40 ahead of Rutgers. Those are its final two foes of the regular season, of course. The Lions will be favored to beat both teams and earn bowl eligibility. Now, it’s just up to them to go out and do it, starting with a primetime clash with the Cornhuskers this weekend.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 10:

1 Ohio State

2 Indiana

3 Oregon

4 Georgia

5 Notre Dame

6 Alabama

7 Utah

8 Texas Tech

9 Texas A&M

10 USC

21 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Nov. 9:

Regular season record projection: 5.4-6.6 ➡️ 5.2-6.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 6.7 percent ➡️ 42.3 percent

Odds of winning six games: 47.3 percent ➡️ 42.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Nov. 9:

Regular season record projection: 5.6-6.4 ➡️ 5.4-6.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 6.7 percent

Odds of winning six games: 55 percent ➡️ 47.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 26:

Regular season record projection: 5.7-6.3 ➡️ 5.6-6.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 59.2 percent ➡️ 55 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 19:

Regular season record projection: 6-6 ➡️ 5.7-6.3

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 0.6 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent ➡️ 59.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where things stood after Northwestern?

Regular season record projection: 7.2-4.8 ➡️ 6-6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.0 percent ➡️ 0.6 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 1.9 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where did things stand after UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent