ESPN FPI update: How likely is Penn State to win six games or more in 2025 now?

IOWA CITY — Penn State further reduced its postseason chances when it lost to Iowa 25-24 on Saturday night at Kinnick Stadium. The Nittany Lions are now 3-4 on the year, entering their second and penultimate bye week.

ESPN has put out its new Football Power Index to help show just how bleak the Lions’ outlook is for their final five games. For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is (somehow) still ranked No. 21, which is the same as last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed as follows:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 19:

Regular season record projection: 6-6 ➡️ 5.7-6.3

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 0.6 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent ➡️ 59.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

Tossing out the shortened COVID season, you have to go all the way back to 2004 to find the last time Penn State won fewer than six games in a season. As the FPI metrics above indicate, that is now the very likely outcome to this once promising season. Massive changes will have to happen for the Lions to beat Ohio State and Indiana. Wins over Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rutgers are possible but also not probable. Penn State can still make a bowl game. But, we continue to put the odds against that happening.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 8:

1 Ohio State

2 Oregon

3 Alabama

4 Indiana

5 Notre Dame

6 Georgia

7 Texas

8 USC

9 Miami

10 Texas A&M

21 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Where things stood after Northwestern?

Regular season record projection: 7.2-4.8 ➡️ 6-6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.0 percent ➡️ 0.6 percent

Odds of winning six games: 96.1 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 1.9 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Chances of making the title game: 0.1 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 0.0 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Where did things stand after UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent