ESPN FPI update: Penn State drops, sees 2025 outlook change, exiting bye week

The latest Football Power Index rankings are out from ESPN following Week 4 of the college football season. Penn State sat idle, of course, while teams like its next opponent, Oregon, were on the field. How did things change ahead of Week 5?

For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is now ranked No. 10, down three spots from the No. 7 position it held last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed as follows:

Penn State Week 4 long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent

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Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

One of the reasons Penn State moved down is because Indiana shot up the rankings. The Hoosiers moved up 10 spots to No. 6 following a 63-10 dismantling of Illinois. The FPI continues to see the Lions different than the Associated Press top 25 and Coaches Poll, both of which have James Franklin’s team not only in the top five but also ahead of Oregon, which tops the index ahead of its trip to Beaver Stadium.

It goes without saying, of course, that next Saturday’s meeting between the Lions and Ducks will drastically impact the way that the index, poll voters, and College Football Playoff selection committee members view both programs moving forward. So far, PSU has seen its odds of both making the Playoff and possibly winning it all reduce week after week. That will stop happening, however, with a triumph in a rematch of the Big Ten title game.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 4:

Oregon — 23.6

Ohio State — 22.4

Alabama — 22.2

Georgia — 21.7

Texas — 21.4

Indiana — 21.4

USC — 20.8

Ole Miss — 20.7

Tennessee — 18.7

Penn State — 18.5