ESPN FPI update: Penn State tumbles after Oregon loss, but how far did its postseason chances fall?

The latest Football Power Index rankings are out from ESPN following Week 5 of the college football season. Penn State is unsurprisingly moving down after a frantic fourth-quarter comeback that forced overtime before ultimately falling short as Oregon came into Beaver Stadium and beat the Lions 30-24 in front of a frenzied White Out game crowd.

For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is now ranked No. 11, which is down one spot from the No. 710position it held last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed as follows, and it’s not good:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Sept. 28:

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

The numbers above should not shock anyone who has been following this post weekly. The FPI metrics has been skeptical of both the Penn State offense and also what it did overall against a week non-conference schedule. So, after an ugly performance for Andy Kotelnicki’s group and the first loss of the year, the drops across all categories make sense.

The Lions still control their own destiny to make the College Football Playoff. But, FPI gives it just the 19th best odds to get there with the September portion of the schedule now over. Assuming PSU loses at Ohio State in November, it will have to win out otherwise to enter the conversation about which two-loss teams should earn a Playoff spot. It won’t win the non-conference resume rankings, at the very least. But if it finishes 10-2, it will have a great shot to get in. Of course, after four games, more people can probably envision this team finishing with three losses or more than those who care to admit it.

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 5:

1 Oregon — 24.4

2 Ohio State — 23.5

3 Alabama — 23.1

4 Texas — 21.6

5 Indiana — 21.1

6 Notre Dame — 20.8

7 Gerogia — 20.8

8 Ole Miss — 19.5

9 Miami — 19.1

10 USC — 18.7

11 Penn State — 18.3

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent

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