How can Penn State wrestling break the all-time NCAA scoring record? Setting the stage for championship Saturday

NEW STORY: We have a post-medal round update here ahead of the finals.

Original story:

Penn State wrestling starts Day 3 of the 2024 NCAA Wrestling Championships as the tournament winner. All other teams were eliminated from contention late Friday night as the Lions rolled through the semifinals, where they put six competitors into tonight’s finals. First, though, the medal round will be contested on Saturday morning. Two Nittany Lions will be on the mat during that session with hopes of finishing as high as third place.

Penn State starts the final day with 148 team points. By comparison, second place Michigan has 64.5. Third place Iowa has 60. And, Arizona State and Iowa State are tied at 49.5. It is an unprecedented lead after just two days. But, it was built on another dominating performance by head coach Cael Sanderson’s team, featuring numerous bonus point victories. He will receive his 11th-team title trophy since taking over the Nittany Lions in 2009 on Saturday night.

Before the tournament began, many wondered if the Lions could break 1997 Iowa’s all-time NCAA team points record of 170. When returning All-American Shayne Van Ness was lost for the season back in December, all hope seemed lost. But, his replacement at 149 pounds, Tyler Kasak, will wrestle in the consolation semifinal Saturday morning with hopes of winning to reach the third place match. He has netted the Lions 13.5 team points so far. That’s more than anyone could have expected. And it’s one of many reasons why the Lions are within reach of the Hawkeyes’ so far unbreakable mark.

Can they get there and surpass it? Let’s take a look below.

Setting the stage for Saturday: Medal round

As mentioned above, Penn State will have two competitors in the medal round. Kasak and Bernie Truax can finish as high as third or as low as sixth at 149 and 184 pounds, respectively. They will take the mat for two matches once the medal round starts at 11 a.m. ET on ESPNU. A win puts them in the third/fourth place match and earns each winner 3.5 advancement points if by decision. A loss puts them in the fifth/sixth place match, where each could earn one point by winning that match.

To take math out of the equation, Penn State’s best path to breaking the record would be for Kasak and Truax to finish third and win at least one of their two matches by major decision or better. The problem is that Kasak faces No. 1 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska, who has already beaten him twice this year. So, a loss there is likely. But, if the expected outcome happens, Kasak could still win the fifth/sixth match by decision or better and earn multiple points toward the team total.

As for Traux, he will battle four seed Trey Munoz of Oregon State in the consolation semifinals. The Beaver beat the Nittany Lion by decision during dual meet season. So, Truax will aim to avenge that loss and help the team in the process.

As a housekeeping note, wrestlers get an extra point for a major decision, 1.5 for a technical fall, and two for a pin.

How many points can Penn State get in the finals?

Penn State has six finalists. Here’s a look at the matchups:

141 pounds: No. 2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs. No. 1 Jesse Mendez, Ohio State

157 pounds: No. 1 Levi Haines, PSU vs. No. 2 Jacori Teemer, Arizona State

165 pounds: No. 2 Mitchell Mesenbrink, Penn State vs. No. 3 Davis Carr, Iowa State

174 pounds: No. 9 Carter Starocci, PSU vs. No. 6 Rocco Welsh, Ohio State

197 pounds: No. 1 Aaron Brooks, PSU vs. No. 2 Trent Hidlay, N.C. State

285 pounds: No. 1 Greg Kerkvliet, Penn State vs. No. 10 Lucas Davison, Michigan

Can the finalists lead the Lions to a record?

First things first: Penn State can get four team points for each finals win. If all six finalists win, Penn State will set two records: It would have at least 172 team points, which breaks Iowa’s record, and it would also become the first team to ever have six individual champions in one year. Is that likely? No. Possible? Of course.

Bartlett and Mendez are 1-1 against each other this year. It’s a true toss-up. Haines/Teemer is, too, as is Mesenbrink/Carr. Penn State going 0 for 3 in that stretch is unlikely but possible. So is three for three. Let’s somewhat split the difference and say they go two for three.

At 174, Starocci beat Welsh 4-2 during the dual meet season. He is hobbled with an injured right leg but has to be considered the favorite. So let’s call that a win. Brooks and Hidlay will be the most anticipated finals bout of the evening. The Penn State wrestler has three wins over the Wolfpacker, all at nationals. But, they’ve been close: The combined points total is 15-9 in favor of Brooks, and one came in overtime. The Penn State star is favored in their first meeting at 197 (Hidlay bumped up to face Brooks this year, who of course moved up from 184), but a great match is expected.

At heavyweight, Kerkvliet somehow managed not to draw Wyatt Hendrickson of Air Force or Yonger Bastida of Iowa State, who were the likely finalists in the bottom half of the bracket. Instead, he gets No. 10 Lucas Davison of Michigan, who he beat 5-3 in 2022 when Davison was at Northwestern and 8-3 earlier this year. If the Lions are favored to possibly get any bonus points in the finals, it’s in this match.

So what are the Lions’ chances of breaking the record?

If Penn State wins the three bouts it is favored in (174, 197, 285) by decision, those are worth an extra 12 team points (four per win). If it wins two of the other three, that’s another eight. It gets the Lions to 168 based on the starting point of 148 on Saturday morning. Kasak figures to earn a point at minimum, which would take the Lions to 169. We’ll say Truax does the same, which would leave the Lions to tie the Iowa record at 170 if all finals and fifth-place bout wins are by decision.

With that said, we liked Truax to finish third at nationals since before Big Tens started. If so, he’ll get four points, which in the above scenario, would jump the Lions to 173.5 and set a new record.

The problem, of course, is that it’s no guarantee Truax will get revenge against Munoz, that either consolation bracket wrestler will win either of his matches, or that the Lions will go five of six in the finals. Thus, if using the likelihood category of the Likert Scale Examples for Surveys, we put the chances of Penn State breaking the all-time scoring record somewhere between possibly but probably not. But, again, it’s doable. However, a lot must go right.