NCAA wrestling tournament preview: Breaking down the Penn State outlook at 125-157 pounds

The Penn State wrestling team is taking all 10 starts to this year’s NCAA Championships. It marks the third time the Lions will have a representative in all 10 weight classes at nationals during head coach Cael Sanderson’s tenure. Blue-White Illustrated will be previewing the event up until it starts on Thursday and then will have live updates throughout the three-day event. We start with an outlook for each Lions wrestler. Today, we’ll cover the 125-157 pound weight classes. Tomorrow, we’ll look at 165-285. Wednesday, we’ll offer our predictions. And, Thursday, we’ll have information on how to watch every session. An audio/video show will be available before the first whistle blows inside of the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Mo., as well.

125 pounds: Penn State freshman Braeden Davis

Seed: No. 1

Opening opponent: Winner of No. 33 Tristan Lujuan, Michigan State vs. Mike Joyce, Brown

Weight class breakdown: Davis won the Big Ten title two weekends ago, which is how he went from the No. 6 seed at the conference-level event to the top seed at nationals. If you’ve been following our coverage all season, you know our opinion of the 125-pound weight class. It’s a major guessing game week-to-week in terms of who will be upset next. With that said, we like Davis’ draw, even if a wrestler he needed sudden victory to beat during the dual meet season, Rutgers’ Dylan Peterson, is a likely second-round opponent on Thursday night. And, he could see another wrestler he has a win over, Minnesota’s Patrick McKee (davis was an 8-1 winner in the Big Ten finals) in the NCAA quarters.

Looking for another positive for the Nittany Lion? The only two wrestlers to top the 20-2 freshman this year, Caleb Smith of Nebraska and Drake Ayala of Iowa, are the Nos. 15 and 3 seeds, respectively, which have them on the other side of the bracket. If the seeds hold, Davis would face Purdue’s Matt Ramos (25-5) in the semifinals.

133 pounds: Sophomore Aaron Nagao

Seed: No. 10

Expected opening opponent: No. 10 Aaron Nagao, PSU vs. No. 23 Marlon Yarbrough, Virginia

Weight class breakdown: Nagao finished third at Big Tens, where he pinned his opponent in the placing match to roll onto the season’s final stage with plenty of confidence. That said, the first-year Nittany Lion has had an up-and-down season, mostly do to illness but also an inconsistent ability to finish shots and light up the scoreboard, and carries with him a 14-5 record into nationals. An opening round win seems likely but the Penn State starter will need a seeding upset over No. 7 Nasir Bailey of Little Rock in Round 2 to make the quarters.

Even if that happens, it’s hard to see Nagao beating Lehigh’s Ryan Crookham, the No. 2 seed who beat the Nittany Lion 6-4 earlier this year, but it’s not an impossible task. That said, it’s more likely than not that Nagao’s championship bracket run goes no further than the quarters. Top-seed Dalton Fix of Oklahoma State and Crookham will make the finals if the seeds hold.

141 pounds: Penn State senior Beau Bartlett

Seed: No. 2

Expected opening opponent: No. 2 Beau Bartlett, Penn State vs. No. 31 Kai Owen, Colorado

Weight class breakdown: Bartlett beat NCAA Tournament No. 1 seed Jesse Mendez of Ohio State during the dual meet season. But, he lost to the Buckeye in the Big Ten finals. It’s why he finds himself on the bottom half of the bracket. No. 18 Cole Matthews of Pittsburgh is an unfavorable draw but likely second-round opponent. The Penn State senior beat the Panther in tiebreaker one at nationals a year ago. If he can do so again, his path to the semifinals is favorable. There, the Nittany Lion would likely see No. 3 Real Woods of Iowa. Bartlett beat him handily during the dual meet season but the Hawkeye did beat him by decision in 2023. It is easily one of the most anticipated potential semifinal matchups of the tournament.

149 pounds: Freshman Tyler Kasak

Seed: No. 7

Expected opening opponent: No. 7 Tyler Kasak, PSU vs. No. 26 Jaden Abas, Stanford

Weight class breakdown: Kasak rolls into his first NCAA Tournament following a third place finish at Big Tens. He is 17-4 on the year. The first-year Nittany Lion is likely to see his championship bracket run end in the quarterfinals assuming the seeds hold and he must face No. 2 Kyle Parco of Arizona State there. He is the favorite to win the bottle half of the bracket. No. 1 Ridge Lovett of Nebraska is both the favorite on the top half of the bracket and the most likely winner of the weight class.

157 pounds: Penn State sophomore Levi Haines

Seed: No. 1

Expected opening opponent: No. 1 Levi Haines, PSU vs. winner of No. 33 Nick Stampoulous, Buffalo vs. No. 32 Isaax Wilcox, Ohio State

Weight class breakdown: Two-time Big Ten champion Levi Haines aims to win his first NCAA title after earning All-American status and finishing second a year ago. He is 18-0 on the year, 10-0 against the field, and easily the cream of the crop. An All-Big Ten quarterfinal on the top half of the top side of the bracket is likely with Haines facing either No. 8 Peyton Robb of Nebraska or No. 9 Will Lewan of Michigan. The Penn State sophomore is perfect against both in his career, but the Wolverine has lost closer matches (two in sudden victory and one by decision, 2-1) than the Cornhusker, who has dropped a pair of 10-3 bouts to the Nittany Lion.

On the bottom half, two-seed Jacor Teemer of Arizona State or No. 3 Myles Shapiro of Cornell are the most likely finalists.