New On3 Draft by Stars shows how stars predict future NFL Drafts
Draft by Stars data released by On3 Wednesday answers an ageless question: Do recruiting stars matter?
The short answer ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft is that yes, they do, at least as it relates to a prospect’s chances of being drafted.
“The five- and four-star draft success rate over the past five years by the recruiting media companies is mind-blowing,” a Big 12 coach who has also spent time working in an NFL front office told On3.
“They don’t always get it right. Nobody does. Ranking players and projecting their long-term NFL draft success is a very inexact science. But it’s pretty clear looking at the data that if you’re ranked high, you’ve got a much better chance of getting drafted.”
What is the Draft by Stars data?
Ever watch a Draft broadcast, listen to a podcast about it, or scroll social media during one? If so, you’ve almost certainly come across comments such as “stars don’t mean anything” or “recruiting rankings don’t matter.” Usually, this happens after a player who entered college with two stars or lower is picked in the first round or early on Day 2.
Despite what you might read or hear, the numbers paint a different picture.
As On3’s Draft by Stars rankings show, over the last five years, five-stars were 15 times more likely to be drafted compared to a two-star or lower prospect. Four-stars, then, are 5.2 times more likely to be drafted compared to that baseline.
From a percentage standpoint, 62.9 percent of all five star players are eventually drafted. That number is 22.1 percent for four-stars, 5.3 percent for three-stars, and 4.2 percent for two-stars or lower.
“The average recruiting cycle since the Class of 2017 has included 16,602 players and during that time 1,294 players have been drafted,” On3’s Jeremy Crabtree writes.
“Over that period, five-star recruits make up only .7% of the overall recruiting cycle. Yet, 117 five-star recruits have been selected and the draft rate over the past five years is 63%.“
Which states produce the most drafted talent?
Penn State has expanded its recruiting footprint over the last handful of recruiting cycles. Draft by Stars data helps explain why.
Only one part of the Mid-Atlantic ranks inside the top 10 NFL draft talent-producing states per capita over the past five years. It’s the District of Columbia, which has produced a drafted talent ratio percentage of 243 percent.
“Washington D.C. is another area with a small population but a big-time impact on the NFL draft,” Crabtree writes. “Yes, most of the D.C. area talent can be found in surrounding suburbs in Maryland and Virginia. But there’s still some good talent to be found every year.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the District of Columbia round out the top five. Seven of the top eight states are in the south.
Another key state for Penn State, Virginia, checks in at No. 11. Maryland, then, is No. 14, while Pennsylvania is No. 15.
