Penn State-Arkansas matchup: What to expect from the Nittany Lions, Razorbacks

Penn State and Arkansas will meet for the first time in Saturday’s Outback Bowl.

The matchup looks somewhat different today compared to what was expected back when the New Year’s Day game pairing was announced.

Opt outs are the main reason for that.

No matter, both sides will press on without some key starters with hopes of leaving Tampa, Fla., victorious. Here’s our look at the matchup.

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State will be without star receiver Jahan Dotson, who elected to skip the game to get ready for the 2022 NFL Draft. It is also going to be without starting left tackle Rasheed Walker, who has not been seen at practice this week. Olu Fashanu will start in his place.

On the other side, Arkansas will be without standout defensive end Tre Williams. The Razorbacks play both three- and four-man fronts. Head coach Sam Pittman suggested last week that doing so could help them overcome the loss of Williams.

Arkansas has a top-50 passing defense in all of FBS. It defends the aerial attack better than the run. Penn State has struggled on the ground, of course, but hopes to fix things on that front after a month’s worth of preparation time. Whether or not it can do that may go a long way toward deciding the outcome of this matchup.

With so many Penn State defenders out, keeping the ball away from Arkansas as much as possible may be crucial in the end. But, as we saw for 12 games between September and November, wanting to run and being able to are two very different things for this Nittany Lions team.

Ultimately, the Nittany Lions may look like a different, and better, attack with so much time to get ready. But, we’ll need to see it to believe it first.

EDGE: Arkansas

When Penn State is on defense

Three weeks ago, it would have been crazy to suggest that Penn State’s defense doesn’t have the edge. That’s because Arkansas likes to run, and the Lions have been terrific at stopping it all season.

Things are quite different now, however. The Lions will be without linebackers Ellis Brooks and Brandon Smith, end Arnold Ebiketie, defensive tackle Derrick Tangelo, and safety Jaquan Brisker. That’s a lot of firepower gone from a defense that also has an interim coordinator in Anthony Poindexter after Brent Pry left for the Virginia Tech job.

Penn State can only hope to be able to slow an attack that starts with quarterback KJ Jefferson enough to allow its offense to have a chance at keeping pace. He is the definition of a dual-threat and not exactly easy to tackle at 6-foot-3, 245 pounds. With top target Treylon Burks opting out, the Razorbacks do not have a true receiving threat. That may not matter, though, if the Lions give up lots of yards on the ground.

Penn State is down too many starters on defense to give it the nod.

EDGE: Arkansas

Odds and ends

–Arkansas kicker Cam Little is a perfect 43 for 43 on extra point tries this year. He’s also made 19 of 23 field goal attempts.

–Keep an eye on Nathan Parodi in the punt return game. He did return one for a score this season.

–Penn State usually has no worries in the kick return defense department. That shouldn’t change in this matchup.

Final word

Penn State fans are hopeful that the Lions will be able to pull this one out despite being down so many stars. Anything is possible in the game of football, as we know. But, the betting line has flipped from Penn State being a short favorite to Arkansas instead being one. That says just about all that one needs to know about what’s changed, and what is expected, on Saturday.