Penn State basketball looking to eliminate mistakes as it hosts No. 19 MSU: Preview, prediction

Penn State, as first-year head coach Micah Shrewsberry knows, is not a basketball program that can historically afford to lose in the margins.

Perpetually outmanned in comparison to the Big Ten titans they encounter on a nightly basis, the Nittany Lions simply cannot succeed while sabotaging themselves. They have to be the ones forcing the mistakes and mental lapses, not committing them.

Especially on offense, a recent streak of six losses in seven games has involved plenty of those fatal mistakes. Now preparing to host No. 19 Michigan State at the Bryce Jordan Center for a 6:30 p.m. tip, Shrewsberry emphasized that any turnaround must begin with addressing those errors.

“We’re hurting ourselves,” Shrewsberry said. “And Penn State can’t beat Penn State. Penn State’s gotta beat Minnesota, Penn State’s gotta beat Michigan State. Penn State can’t beat Penn State, and right now that’s what we’re doing to ourselves. It just can’t happen.”

The Nittany Lions enter Tuesday’s contest turning the ball over on 19.3 percent of their possessions on offense, which ranks 224th in the country and 13th out of 14th Big Ten teams.

Interestingly enough, the only team worse is Tom Izzo’s Spartans, who turn it over at a 20.5 percent clip.

Recently, the Nittany Lions find themselves trapped in a frustrating pattern. When they shoot well, they don’t take care of the ball. When they take care of the ball, they don’t shoot well.

Penn State made 55 percent of its field goals in a loss to Minnesota this Saturday, besting its season-high by a considerable margin. But the Nittany Lions turned it over 13 times and lost anyway.

“It’s been an issue for us, our turnovers, all year,” Shrewsberry said. “We’ve been fairly consistent turning the ball over. I got a guy that does analytics for us. It hurts your feelings to look at it every game because he doesn’t hold back on his adjectives. Your turnover percentage was X this game, and that is very poor. Like, I understand, thank you. It’s just an area where we have to be better.”

RELATED: Penn State offensive attack needs adjusted perspective

Scouting the Spartans

Michigan State comes into this game at 18-6 and 9-4 in the Big Ten, having split its last four conference games.

The Spartans rank 29th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, and 44th in his defensive efficiency rankings. They shoot 46.1 percent from the field, and hold their opponents to a 40.3 percent conversion rate, on average.

They also rank 11th in the country with 5.6 blocks per game, owing primarily to veteran 6-foot-11 big man Marcus Bingham, who averages 2.4 blocks per contest on his own.

Forward Gabe Brown leads Michigan State in scoring with 12.3 points per game, followed by Malik Hall at 10.5.

The Nittany Lions played with the Spartans in the first half during their trip to the Breslin Center, but found themselves overwhelmed in transition in the second half, eventually losing 80-64.

The status of Penn State big man Greg Lee, who missed the last two games with an ankle injury, is unclear.

Shrewsberry said Lee is considered day-to-day by Penn State’s staff. His injury is far from season-ending, and the Nittany Lions hope to have him back soon.

Penn State vs Michigan State prediction

Michigan State 68, Penn State 66.

Penn State has demonstrated repeatedly that it can play with the top teams in the conference, especially at home. However, it has not shown that it can close those games out. Until the Nittany Lions improve their late-game execution, winning this type of game is always going to be a big ask. For that reason, I’ll take the Spartans in a close one.