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Penn State

Penn State below Big Ten's top tier in new PFF Power Rankings

nate-mug-10.12.14by: Nate Bauer07/07/25NateBauerBWI
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Penn State head coach James Franklin and Oregon's Dan Lanning meet ahead of last year's Big Ten Championship. (Photo Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images)

The Penn State football season won’t officially begin for another 54 days. The rest of the college football landscape can largely say the same as it works through the summer access period leading into preseason camp later this month.

Nonetheless, the analytics are already being crunched to project which teams stand above the rest.

On Monday, Pro Football Focus College released its updated college football power rankings. Reflecting the results of 10,000 season simulations that take into account team point-spread ratings, strength of schedule, and projected records, the rankings assign each program numbers across several categories:

  • Strength of schedule
  • Projected win total
  • Projected chance to make a bowl game
  • Projected chance to win the conference
  • Projected chance to make the playoff
  • Projected chance to win the national championship

Not unlike ESPN’s College Football Power Index – which also projects percentage chances to “win out” through the season – the updated PFF data paints a similar picture for Penn State. Its Big Ten counterparts, however, land in loftier territory in PFF’s projections.

Examining the PFF Power Rankings

Overall, Penn State is rated No. 6 in the country with a projected win total of 8.75 games. That number is lower than the Nittany Lions’ over/under win total for the 2025 season, which several sportsbooks have set at 10.5 following last season’s College Football Playoff semifinal appearance.

Whereas ESPN’s metrics place the Nittany Lions between Ohio State and Oregon at No. 5 in the FPI, the PFF rankings have Penn State looking up at both conference powerhouses – each of which appears on this year’s schedule.

Set to face Oregon on Sept. 27 at Beaver Stadium in a game ranked No. 5 on ESPN’s list of top 10 games for the season, Penn State will host PFF’s No. 2 overall team. The Ducks are projected to win 9.23 games, with a 58.02 percent chance to make the playoff and a 6.98 percent chance to win the national championship.

In November, the challenge gets steeper as Penn State travels to Columbus to take on Ohio State. ESPN ranks the Nov. 1 matchup as the No. 3 game of the season, and PFF echoes that sentiment, placing the Buckeyes at No. 1 in its power rankings. Ohio State is projected to win 9.4 games, with a 20.72 percent chance to win the Big Ten, a 62.7 percent chance to make the playoff, and a national-best 9.92 percent chance to win the national championship.

Penn State football’s place

Penn State, meanwhile, isn’t far behind.

Checking in at No. 6 overall in PFF’s power rankings, the Nittany Lions are given the fifth-best chance to win the national championship at 5.52 percent. Only Ohio State, Oregon, Georgia, and Miami are ahead.

Penn State’s odds of winning at least the six games required to reach a bowl game sit at 94.75 percent. The program is also given an 11.32 percent chance to win the Big Ten and a 46.03 percent chance to reach the College Football Playoff. Only Ohio State and Oregon are given better odds to win the conference.

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