Penn State ESPN FPI update: The ugly new numbers from an inexcusable loss to UCLA are out

ESPN has put out its new Football Power Index now that Week 6 of the 2025 college football season is over. Penn State tumbled significantly as expected after being upset by UCLA, 42-37, at the Rose Bowl. Fair warning if you dare read on: The updated data is not kind to the Nittany Lions’ short-term or long-term outlook.

For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is now ranked No. 19, which is down eight spots from the No. 11 position it held last week, according to the latest update. As for the Lions’ long-term outlook, it changed significantly:

Penn State updated long-term 2025 outlook per ESPN’s FPI on Oct. 5:

Regular season record projection: 8.7-3.4 ➡️ 7.2-4.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.5 percent ➡️ 1.0 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 2.3 percent ➡️ 0 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 22.6 percent ➡️ 1.9 percent

Chances of making the title game: 2.8 percent ➡️ 0.1 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 1.2 percent ➡️ 0.0 percent

Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

You don’t need us to tell you: Things are dire for Penn State when it comes to their chances of making the College Football Playoff. With three wins against a putrid slate of non-conference foes plus a loss to one of the worst Power Four teams in the country, the Lions would need to run the table to have any shot of getting into the 12-team field. And, even then, their resume would stack up brutally to other contenders. Of course, if Indiana and Ohio State were still where they are today in November when the Lions play both, wins over each would be significant factors to consider. But, how could anyone think beating one of them, let alone both, is likely at this point in time?

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Full FPI top 10 after Week 6:

1 Ohio State

2 Oregon

3 Alabama

4 Indiana

5 Notre Dame

6 Georgia

7 Ole Miss

8 Texas

9 Miami

10 Tennessee

19 Penn State

Penn State and the FPI: Week by week recap

Where were the Lions before UCLA?

Regular season record projection: 9.3-2.8 ➡️ 8.7-3.4

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 1.2 percent ➡️ 1.5 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 7.7 percent ➡️ 2.1 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 38.8 percent ➡️ 22.6 percent

Chances of making the title game: 6.6 percent ➡️ 2.8 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 3.1 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Where was Penn State after the bye week and before Oregon?

Here’s a look:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.3-2.8

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.3 percent ➡️ 1.2 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.2 percent ➡️ 7.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 47.2 percent ➡️ 38.8 percent

Chances of making the title game: 9.6 percent ➡️ 6.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 4.8 percent ➡️ 3.1 percent

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent

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