Penn State-FIU Predictions: Can Nittany Lions build on Week 1 performance?

Penn State didn’t cover the spread against Nevada in Week 1, but the Nittany Lions put together a strong performance otherwise, dominating in all three phases of the game.

Now, as coaches often stress, how Penn State grows from that performance in Week 2 against Florida International will be the focus of fans this upcoming weekend. According to BETMGM, the Nittany Lions are 41.5-point favorites at home Saturday.

“They’re going to force you to execute on every single play,” said FIU head coach Willie Simmons. “They’re going to force you to be disciplined, force you to communicate. And then, when you consider the fact that they have one of the largest stadiums in the country, it makes communication an issue. And so our guys have to be dialed into the signals, clued into what we have to key on when the ball is snapped, and play sound fundamental football, to give ourselves a chance. Because if you don’t, they can hurt you in many ways. But again, there’s a reason why they’re the preseason number two.”

Penn State has played Florida International once before, dominating the Panthers in a 59-0 win back in 2007. Will Saturday be something similar? Our staff gives their picks below.

Nate Bauer (Season Record: 1-0)

It’s not the Nittany Lions, per se. It’s the points.

Penn State has every advantage and should be expected to be a heavy favorite going into Saturday afternoon’s game with the Panthers. Maybe the Nittany Lions even get out to a quicker start, unlocking some of the explosive playmaking head coach James Franklin wanted over the plodding, workmanlike pace that accompanied his side’s offensive performance against Nevada last weekend.

But, a 42-point win for the hosts just feels a little beyond likely, particularly against an FIU team that features some legitimate athletes on both sides of the ball. Kejon Owens is a first-team preseason all-CUSA pick by Phil Steele, Brian Blades is a fifth-year senior DB, and Keyone Jenkins is a real quarterback who was voted the CUSA preseason player of the year and will challenge the Nittany Lions’ secondary.

For a Penn State program determined to rack up valuable reps for its depth early in the season, big point spreads are dangerous.

Penn State: 47
FIU: 10

Thomas Frank Carr (Season Record: 1-0)

Penn State’s offense didn’t fire on all cylinders in week one with some caveats as to why, which we’ve covered this week. But yo recap, Nevada specially played to shorten the game and take away explosive passing plays. As a result, Penn State only won 46-11. Had they converted a couple of field goals into touchdowns, they would have reached a “comfortable” win.

This week’s opponent, FIU suffers from the opposite problem as Nevada. They struggled with defensive communication and assignment sound football in a win over Bethune-Cookman. Despite their lopsided victory, the tape suggests there will be plenty of opportunities for big plays this week.

Defensively, Penn State should feast on an equally frustrating offensive line rife with mistakes and mental busts. FIU has some playmakers but their vertical offense will likely not get off the ground. With a quarterback that suffers from a long windup and a lack of clarity in his second read, the defensive playmakers have a chance to get their hands on the football.

Penn State: 60
FIU: 10

Matt Herb (Season Record: 1-0)

FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins has played two games against Power Four opponents in his career. In a 44-20 loss to Arkansas two years ago, he completed 21 of 36 passes for 265 yards, with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Last year at Indiana, he hit 20 of 29 attempts for 129 yards, with one TD and one pick in a 31-7 loss.

Keeping Jenkins out of the transfer portal was a coup for first-year FIU coach Willie Simmons, and the junior signal-caller will probably make some plays against PSU’s defense, just as he did vs. the Razorbacks and Hoosiers. But as was also the case in those two games, the Panthers figure to have their hands full against an opponent that brings superior offensive firepower into the matchup.

Penn State: 48
FIU: 10

Greg Pickel (Season Record: 1-0)

Penn State gave up a late touchdown last week against Nevada. It marked the first time in five tries as a 40-point favorite in the James Franklin era that the Lions did not cover the point spread. We’re betting that streak restarts again this week.

The Panthers do have some interesting pieces that could make them more dangerous than expected in Conference USA play during Willie Simmons’ first season. But Saturday’s visitors will be outclassed in this contest. Expect the Penn State ground game to roar to life after a pedestrian Week 1 showing while the defense forces some more turnovers.

Penn State: 52
FIU: 7

Ryan Snyder (Season Record: 1-0)

Florida International quarterback Keyone Jenkins has proven to be a solid playmaker at the Group of Five level, but he’s also never faced a defense of Penn State’s quality. In fact, last year’s game against Indiana was just the second time he’s faced a Power Four program. He threw for a modest 129 yards that day, with one touchdown and one interception. He threw for 265 yards against Arkansas the year prior, but also had two interceptions in that game.

Interceptions have been an issue for Jenkins, throwing 11 picks in 2023 and eight more last season. It’s hard for me to envision him not turning the ball over a few times Saturday in Beaver Stadium.

FIU’s defense also allowed Bethune-Cookman to total 346 yards of offense last week. They held the FCS program to just three field goals, but they also allowed the Wildcats four drives of 60 yards or more.

After a lackluster rushing performance last week, look for Penn State’s running backs to put up some much better stats this weekend. I expect Drew Allar to look efficient once again before Ethan Grunkemeyer and the second team add two scores late in the game to cover the spread.

Penn State: 56
FIU: 7