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Penn State gets new ESPN FPI outlook after Villanova win; did the Lions' CFP chances go up or down?

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel5 hours agoGregPickel
NCAA Football: Villanova at Penn State
Penn State Nittany Lions tight end Andrew Rappleyea (87) runs with the ball during the third quarter against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium. (Mandatory Credit: Matthew O'Haren-Imagn Images)

ESPN’s Football Power Index is updated after Week 3 and ahead of Week 4. The good news for Penn State is that it didn’t experience significant movement in either direction. The bad news is that its next foe didn’t either. What are the Lions heading into their bye week?

For those unfamiliar with it, ESPN explains the FPI as follows:

“The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”

Head coach James Franklin’s team is still at No. 7 in the latest update, so there’s no change there. But, the Lions’ long-term outlook in 2025 is slightly different.

Here is how things changed from Week 2 to Week 3:

Regular season record projection: 9.7-2.6 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

How likely are the Lions to win out?: 2.4 percent ➡️ 2.3 percent

Odds of winning the Big Ten: 12.7 percent ➡️ 12.2 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 52.5 percent ➡️ 47.2 percent

Chances of making the title game: 11.5 percent ➡️ 9.6 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 6.0 percent ➡️ 4.8 percent

And here is how things changed from Week 1 to Week 2, for comparison’s sake:

Regular season record projection: 10.3-2.1 ➡️ 9.7-2.6

Win-out percentage: 5.9 percent ➡️ 2.4 percent

Win the Big Ten percentage: 24.2 percent ➡️ 12.7 percent

Chances of making the CFP: 58.5 percent ➡️ 52.5 percent

Chances of making the title game: 14 percent ➡️ 11.5 percent

Penn State percent chance to win it all: 7.3 percent ➡️ 6.0 percent

Assessing the rest of the 2025 Penn State season

The part about Penn State’s odds of just making the 12-team College Football Playoff field falling below 50 percent is going to be what catches most fans’ eyes. But, a look at the teams in front of the Lions at this juncture tells you all you need to know about that.

Oregon, which comes to Beaver Stadium for the White Out on Sept. 27, is still No. 1 with 24.2 points. Right behind the Ducks is Ohio State, which the Lions play at Nov. 1, with 22.3. The Lions are then at No. 7 with 19.4 points.

It goes without saying that if the FPI thinks PSU is below both of its Big Ten peers, then it will lose to both and put head coach James Franklin’s team into the two-loss lottery to get into the CFP based on resume reviews and more.

Do we think there is a better than 50 percent chance of the Lions getting in under that scenario? Yes. But can we understand the computer’s skepticism? Also yes.

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