Penn State hoops bubble watch: Illinois outcome intensifies

The latest movement for Penn State basketball among the nation’s two foremost NCAA Tournament bracket prognosticators is clarifying. The Nittany Lions, set to take on 7-seeded Illinois on Thursday in the Big Ten Tournament (6:30 p.m., BTN), are on the bubble.

More importantly, they could use a win.

At ESPN, Joe Lunardi has had the Nittany Lions meandering on the right side of the bubble since knocking off No. 21 Maryland on Sunday afternoon. Playing their way into the last spot in the last four in with five wins in their final six regular season games, they then began the week among the last four byes, avoiding having to open in Dayton, according to Lunardi’s projection updated on Thursday at 2 a.m.

After a day of major conference tournament action Wednesday, though, Lunardi has pushed Penn State (NET ranking No. 55) back into the last four in. Holding the top spot among that group, they’re joined by Rutgers (43), Oklahoma State (41), and Utah State (22). His last four byes go to NC State (37), Boise State (27), Pittsburgh (56), and Mississippi State (46).

With a 5-6 record in Quad 1 games, Penn State’s five Quad 1 scalps match Rutgers’ record and are second only to Oklahoma State’s six in that “in” group.

At CBS, Jerry Palm has made minor adjustments within a projected First Four spot for Penn State in Dayton. But, he has been consistent in not bumping the Nittany Lions into the group enjoying byes. Instead, the latest update at 6:13 a.m. Thursday has Penn State playing Mississippi State as a play-in for an 11-seed, with Michigan and Utah State battling for the same opportunity in his last four in.

Michigan checks in at 54 in the NET, notching a 3-11 mark against Quad 1 opponents. The 8-seed in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan faces 9-seeded Rutgers to open the day’s slate of games in Chicago.

Is Penn State worthy of an NCAA Tournament bid?

After Sunday’s massive win for the program, head coach Micah Shrewsberry did no politicking for a spot. Rather, laying out what Penn State has done the past three weeks, he insisted the focus has been narrowed simply to Chicago and the opportunity to again compete.

“We’ve won 19 games, we’ve won 10 games in the Big Ten. We’ve beaten good people with at home. At one point in time, the road was really a struggle. We won three straight on the road. We’re starting to take some question marks away, I think,” Shrewsberry said. “But, I don’t know… we’re just gonna go to Chicago and keep playing. We’re playing our best basketball. We wanted to be playing our best basketball in March, and we won five out of six. And that sixth game, we played really well for 20, 25 minutes. We’re playing our best ball right now. And this is what we’ve been aiming for all season.”

Embracing that earned opportunity, the Nittany Lions can virtually assure a relaxed Selection Sunday with a win on Thursday night, regardless of the hypothetical outcome against 2-seed Northwestern on Friday evening.

Given that context, Shrewsberry pushed to erase it from acting as a weight on a team that has battled through a pressure cooker of a Big Ten schedule.

“Now we’ll just go have fun. Let’s go have fun, let’s enjoy what we’re doing, let’s enjoy playing together,” Shrewsberry said. “And, this whole week is going to be a circus. It’s gonna be a circus in Chicago, because anybody can beat anybody on any night. So you get rested, you get healthy, and you go play your best basketball.”