Penn State-Indiana predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking Lions-Hoosiers

Penn State heads to Indiana today with a chance of winning its seventh game of the season. The odds that it does are good, too. The Lions are a 14-point favorite at sportsbooks across the country. Weather will be an issue. Rain and wind are expected. However, how much of each varies based on your preferred forecast destination.

Either way, head coach James Franklin’s team will have to fight the elements and the Hoosiers to be successful in Bloomington.

“I wouldn’t say it necessarily determines our game plans or things like that, but it is something to be aware of,” Franklin said Thursday night. “If you look at the weather in Bloomington, you got anything from one of the nicest days you can imagine in terms of this time of year. But there are also reports now of possible rain and wind that we’re gonna have to factor in. 

“We’ve played in some of those games already this year, so we’ll be fine either way. But I wouldn’t say it necessarily dictates our game plan, but it’s something we need to be aware of.”

Here’s how national and local experts, as well as computer data systems, are picking the Lions-Buckeyes matchup.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Indiana

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model has the Lions winning 36-18.

Sportsline, meanwhile, is calling for a 31-17 Penn State triumph.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock sees Penn State winning by a margin of 13.5 points. That would be a cover if you bet it early but not at the current number.

Finally, The Dunkle Index has the Lions winning by seven.

Lions-Hoosiers predictions from a national perspective

College Football News sees it as a 38-17 win for the Lions.

CBS Sports, meanwhile, envisions a Penn State cover.

“Penn State might have lost two of its last three games, but those losses came against two of the top five teams in the country,” CBS writes. “The Nittany Lions were able to cover the spread against Ohio State, despite Clifford’s three interceptions. Five of their six wins this season have come by double digits, so they are used to covering this type of spread. 

Wide receiver Parker Washington is coming off a fantastic performance against Ohio State, catching 11 passes for 179 yards and a touchdown. Indiana’s leading receiver, Cameron Camper, tore his ACL in the Hoosiers’ last game, so he is going to be sidelined for the remainder of the season. Penn State has won 18 of the last 20 meetings between these programs, and Indiana has only covered the spread four times in its last 18 games dating back to last year.”

James Park of Sports Illustrated, meanwhile, calls for a 17-point Lions win.

Beat writers pick Penn State-Indiana

At Sports Illustrated, Mark Wogenrich has it 31-10 in favor of the Lions.

“Indiana plays a quirky tempo offense (it averages 77 plays per game) that could get an octane boost with a different style that Williams would bring at quarterback. The Hoosiers have been stale offensively throughout their losing streak and might take a big swing to end it.

“So Penn State faces kind of a tricky situation, which might make this game closer than expected for a few quarters. But the Lions’ talent advantage eventually will take over (sound familiar?) and lead to a relatively comfortable win.”

The team at PennLive, meanwhile, have a sweep for the Lions and all but one writer picked them to cover. Daily Hoosier reporter Mike Schumann also picked Penn State.

“The formula has been consistent week-to-week for opposing defenses,” he writes. “Play tight coverage, stack the box, and force Indiana’s receivers to gain separation before the pressure gets to the quarterback.

“Penn State has the personnel to prolong Indiana’s pain on the offensive side of the football. Unless IU can create a flurry of takeaways or there is a revelation at quarterback, it is difficult to see much changing on Saturday. Penn State 34, Indiana 10.”

How the BWI staff picked Lions-Hoosiers

Nate Bauer: Penn State 28, Indiana 10
Thomas Frank Carr: PSU 45, IU 17
Sean Fitz: Penn State 41, Indiana 14
Matt Herb: PSU 34, IU 24
Greg Pickel: Penn State 34, Indiana 20
Ryan Snyder: PSU 31, IU 14