Penn State-Michigan State Matchups: Who will have the edge in East Lansing?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State and Michigan State meet on Saturday in a battle of teams that are both on a six-game losing streak. The Spartans at least own a Power Four win. The Lions do not even have one of those yet. And neither owns a Big Ten win. After this weekend, however, one of them will have one while also keeping their chances of making a bowl game alive.

“These guys, their last six games, five of the six are one-score games,” MSU coach Jonathan Smith said this week. “They are right there, especially this last Saturday, and we know how good Indiana is,” Smith said. “For them to come down to the wire like that, and that dramatic catch in the end zone, we know what’s headed in here is a good, competitive team that’s talented. We’re looking forward to that challenge on Saturday.”

Who will have the edge at Spartan Stadium? We break down the matchups here.

When Penn State is on offense

The fourth game of the Ethan Grunkemeyer era can feature plenty of downfield passing if Andy Kotelnicki calls for it. The Spartans, who own the nation’s No. 68 defense, rank No. 91 in average yards allowed per completion at 7.5. If the version of the Penn State offense that showed up in the second half of the Indiana game is the same one we see this weekend, then the Lions should be able ot move the ball effortlessly. However, they won’t completely abandon the run, and with good reason. Michigan State’s rushing defense is in the bottom half of the country, and its 4.48 average yards allowed per carry ranks 92nd out of 134 FBS teams.

All told, Penn State, even with its backup quarterback, should be able to move the ball. It has the best players on the field in running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Using the passing game to get running room for both will be key. If Kotelnicki can bring himself to do it, the Lions will have every opportunity to score 30 or more points in this contest.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

Is Penn State turning the corner on defense? It’s hard to say. While Jim Knowles’ unit did play some of its best ball of the season against Indiana, it still gave up a brutal game-losing drive late in the fourth quarter by not getting home with its pass rush before the secondary got beat by some pretty incredible catches.

Pressure is possible against this Michigan State team. That’s true regardless of whether or not junior Aidan Chiles or freshman Alessio Milivojevic starts under center. The Spartans have surrendered 30 sacks this season, which is the 12th-most nationally and second-most in the Big Ten. Knowles needs to do whatever he can to free up his front seven to disrupt the passer. Having Chaz Coleman back and healthy would not hurt matters in that area.

MSU has the nation’s No. 103 rushing offense. So, it is not known for winning much on the ground this year. And if it does not have enough time to throw, it will have major trouble moving the ball, let alone scoring.

With that said, we know this Lions’ defense can be susceptible to big plays and quarterback runs. So, that cannot be forgotten, either. But, after facing a bunch of competent offenses, the Lions get a bit of a break here.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–On paper, at least, there appears to be nothing for Penn State to fear regarding the Spartans’ returners.

–The Spartans’ kicker has made only 70 percent of his kicks this season.

–MSU’s punter is No. 1 in the country with an average of 49.73 yards per boot. Ryan Eckley can definitely flip the field position in the Spartans’ favor.

Final word on Penn State-Michigan State

The Lions are a deserving touchdown favorite in this contest. Michigan State will have the two-quarterback system, which could work in its favor. But, all told, the talent edge rests decisively with Penn State, which should end its losing skid on Saturday afternoon.