Penn State-Michigan State Predictions: Will road trip bring an end to PSU's skid?

Penn State showed some serious fight against No. 2 Indiana last week, but still came up short in the end. Following six straight losses, they now have to win out just to make a bowl game.

With games against Nebraska and Rutgers remaining, Saturday’s trip to Michigan State, which is also on a six-game losing streak, represents their best chance to get a win, at least on paper. Up until last weekend’s 23-20 overtime loss at Minnesota, they had lost five straight Big Ten games by double digits. Those came against USC, Nebraska, UCLA, Indiana and Michigan.

Oddsmakers like Penn State’s chances this week, with BetMGM listing the Nittany Lions as a 7.5-point favorite Saturday in East Lansing. Will they make it happen? Our staff provides their predictions below.

Matt Herb (Season Record: 6-3)

How did it come to this? How did these two proud football programs, one of which went into the 2025 season with seemingly legitimate national championship ambitions, manage to put themselves in a position where they’re fighting each other in mid-November to escape the Big Ten’s basement?

Penn State and Michigan State have had a reasonably entertaining rivalry over the years. Manufactured, sure, but other than its parts-bin trophy, there’s been nothing shabby about it. And yet this year the Nittany Lions and Spartans have conjured up something even uglier than the LGT: a combined 0-12 Big Ten record. It’s been nearly a full calendar year since either of these teams beat a conference opponent. Mind-boggling.

Somebody’s going to break out of that funk on Saturday, and I guess I’ve gotta go with PSU. The coaching staff began to show some faith in Ethan Grunkemeyer last week, and he rewarded them with a few impressive downfield completions in his best game yet as a starter. This week, he’ll be facing a Michigan State defense that is giving up 31.4 points per game, worst in the Big Ten.

The Nittany Lions’ pass rush also showed up against Indiana, and on Saturday, Dani Dennis-Sutton and company will be facing an MSU offensive front that is allowing a league-worst 3.3 sacks per game.

It’s way too late for a get-right game, but this could at least be a get-better game for the Lions.

Penn State: 27
Michigan State: 17

Greg Pickel (Season Record: 6-3)

When the 2025 season started, this weekend’s Penn State trip to Michigan State looked like it would be a needed breather after trips to Iowa and Ohio State plus a home game with expected top team Indiana. It is definitely an easier task than the three the Lions have faced over the last month. But, what was previously a very winnable game to keep the team’s CFP hopes intact is now a chance to end avoid an unheard of seventh consecutive loss.

Michigan State is not a very good football team. Penn State, as its record indicates, is not either. But, it has a talent edge. As long as it has an emotional one, too, which we’d expect since this team has shown no signs of quitting, it should have no problem finally experiencing a winning locker room again for the first time since mid-September. Will it be pretty? Probably not, but perhaps. At this pint, the Lions will take a win any way they can get it.

Penn State: 27
Michigan State: 13

Ryan Snyder (Season Record: 6-3)

On paper, Penn State should be the better team. The problem is that I feel like I’ve said that quite a few times this season, and it never seems to pan out. On top of that, it’s hard to know what to expect from this team after giving No. 2 Indiana all it could handle at home last week and still coming up short.

One positive against the Hoosiers that I believe Penn State can build on this week is the play of its defensive line. Coming into last weekend’s game, Penn State had just five sacks in five conference games, all of which came against UCLA and Northwestern. Their eight tackles for loss against Indiana were more than they had against Iowa, Ohio State and Oregon combined.

Meanwhile, Michigan State’s offensive line is allowing an average of 8.3 tackles for loss and 3.6 sacks in conference play. In their last three games against Indiana, Michigan and Minnesota, the Spartans are averaging 5 sacks allowed and nine tackles for loss. PSU’s defenisve line needed a confidence boost and it got one last weekend. They have to keep that going this week, and the numbers suggest they should.

On offense, Ethan Grunkemeyer showed some real progression last Saturday. He’ll now face a defense that’s allowing an average of 7.6 yards per pass, which is ranked 91st nationally. The Spartans are also allowing 4.6 yards per rush, which ranks 90th overall.

Terry Smith said this week that he wants to get both Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton 30+ touches again. I think if they can do that, it should take some pressure off Grunkemeyer and the receivers. As long as last week’s loss didn’t destroy this team’s will to keep fighting, this looks like Penn State’s best shot at getting a win in its final three games.

Penn State: 31
Michigan State: 17