Penn State-Nebraska Matchups: Who will have the edge on PSU's Senior Day?

By Greg Pickel

Penn State and Nebraska meet for the first time since 2020 on Saturday when the Cornhuskers come to Beaver Stadium for the Nittany Lions’ Senior Day game. Matt Rhule and Terry Smith, who were formerly colleagues at Temple, will match wits for the first time as the former looks to beat his alma mater for the second time (he did so in 2015 at Temple) while the latter seeks his second win as the interim head coach.

“Back then I was the head coach at Gateway High School and an athletic director there,” Smith said on Monday when asked about Rhule hiring him with the Owls. “Matt Rhule came in to recruit one of my players, and long story short, I had a past player of mine that went to Ohio State and he came back to visit me. He was going through some life changing decision-making, and so I’m sitting there talking, discussing, blah, blah, blah, whatever.

“Matt Rhule is sitting there listening to the conversation, and long story short, Matt appreciated my care for my player at that point. And we just had a discussion, and a day later he offered me the job. It was a tremendous opportunity for me to grow from high school to college, and I’m thankful for that. I appreciate Matt for taking a chance on me. I’m thankful for our relationship.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday when the two sides meet? We break down the matchups below.

When Penn State is on offense

Penn State ran it an astounding 50 times last Saturday at Michigan State on a pretty windy day in East Lansing. While we are not guaranteeing that will happen again this weekend, it very well could against a Nebraska rush defense that ranks No. 92 nationally, while its pass defense ranks No. 3.

“Last game was 50 runs, 13 passes. It was exactly that. I showed it to our team yesterday,” Rhule said on Monday. “Some runs were the QB taking off after dropping back. But basically Penn State owned the ball most of the fourth quarter this past Saturday with it hardly going in the air.

“We are one of the top pass defenses in the country … but we’ve struggled against the run. And they are going to come out and run the football. I look at it as what a wonderful opportunity for our guys to come out and conquer things that have bothered them. We can defend the run. They’re just very good at it too.”

You might think that Nebraska has a front seven capable of pressuring the passer due to how good its pass defnese is. However, that’s not the case: It ranks 89th in sacks with 18 and 77th in tackles for loss. So, Ethan Grunkemeyer should have time to try and make the throws needed to loosen up the Cornhuskers’ defense to get the ground game going. We’d expect plenty of play action to be used, too.

Nebraska does a good but not great job of getting off the field on third down. Coordinated by former Penn State assistant John Butler, their 12 turnovers rank 68th nationally. 

This is, frankly, a tough one to call. But, from our vantage point, when the Penn State offense lines up opposite the Nebraska defense, the two best players on the field are in the Lions’ backfield, which just so happens to be a position group Nebraska struggles to stop. Thus, it should be an advantage for the Nittany Lions on Saturday night.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Nittany Lions are on defense

Backup quarterback TJ Lateef, who is now the starter, had a fine first game against UCLA. But, he’s taking a step up in class here, especially with the Penn State pass rush taking a major step forward in recent weeks.

“One of the things we’ve done since I took over is we put our prowler package back in,” Smith said this week. “That is just a more aggressive defense. We just put more pass rushers in.

“Manny Diaz brought that years ago, and teams don’t have an answer for it. So we brought that back. We’re blitzing five a little bit more to create some pressure and havoc. Again, Jim Knowles calls the defense. During the week of prep, we just bounce things off each other, and he’s cutting the guys loose now.”

That is not good news for a Cornhuskers offensive line that has allowed 27 sacks so far this year, which ranks No. 113 nationally. Like Penn State, Nebraska will want to protect Lateef, put him in favorable passing situations when it is time to pass, and otherwise let the ground game do the work. Running back Emmett Johnson is fourth in the country with an average of 113 yards per game. His 1,131 yards are fifth nationally. And, he has 11 touchdowns. He is the Huskers’ offense, and it will be up to Penn State, and its 71st-ranked run defense, to stop him.  

The Penn State defense has been better against the run in recent weeks. But, it’s been a problem to get stops all season long consistently. 

This matchup looks dead even on paper. Because Lateef can run it, too, I’m going to give the Cornhuskers a slight advantage. But, like the other section, this appears to be tight.

EDGE: Nebraska

Odds and ends

–Penn State is No. 1 in ESPN’s FPI for special teams efficiency. Nebraska is No. 6.

–Cornhusker Jamir Conn has two kick blocks this year.

–Kenneth Williams is No. 2 in the country with an average of 32.92 yards per kickoff return. One of his 12 returns went for a touchdown. Jacory Barney Jr., meanwhile, is 14th nationally with an average of 12.10 yards per punt return.

–Kicker Kyle Cunanan is 12 of 15 on the season.

Final word on Penn State-Nebraska

The point spread of this game still feels a bit high to me. Penn State has a talent edge on paper. But, both teams have strengths to take advantage of the other’s weaknesses. That makes me think a blowout is probably unlikely. The Lions have the overall edge, though. This should ultimately be a game worthy of its prime time billing.