Penn State-Nebraska Predictions: Can Lions build on last week's win?

Penn State finally got its first conference win last Saturday, defeating Michigan State on the road.

Now, Nebraska comes to Beaver Stadium for a primetime showdown on NBC for Senior Day. Led by Nittany Lion letterman Matt Rhule, Nebraska is aiming for its first nine-win season since 2016. However, showdowns with Penn State and Iowa next Friday won’t make it easy on them.

According to BetMGM, Penn State is a 9.5-point favorite at home after opening up at 10. Since joining the Big Ten, Nebraska is 4-1 against Penn State. They’re 1-1 at Beaver Stadium, defeating PSU 23-20 in 2013 before losing in a shootout, 56-44, in 2017.

Will they make it happen Saturday night? Our staff provides their predictions below.

Matt Herb (Season Record: 7-3)

We haven’t seen much of Dylan Raiola’s replacement, true freshman TJ Lateef. But based on what we have seen — a victorious effort at UCLA in which he amassed 236 yards of total offense with 3 passing touchdowns — Lateef looks like the kind of quarterback who has given Penn State trouble this year. He’s an accurate passer (13 for 15 vs. the Bruins) who can make plays with his feet when the opportunity presents itself (5 carries for 31 yards).

Lateef was pressed into emergency duty after Raiola suffered a broken fibula the previous week against USC, but now he’s got a full game under his belt and has had two weeks to get settled in as starter and prepare for Penn State.

Still, I can’t help but think PSU will rise to the occasion on Senior Day. Except for two quarters at Ohio State in which they were outclassed by the No. 1 team in the country, the Nittany Lions have gone toe-to-toe with everybody they’ve faced since Terry Smith took over as interim coach. Smith’s motivational abilities have been on full display in recent weeks, and he’s made no secret of his desire to put those abilities to use as the permanent head coach at his alma mater. “The way I see it, my interview is every day that I’m operating in this seat,” he said on Monday.

Whatever the future may hold for Smith, a win over the Cornhuskers — which would be PSU’s first of the year over an FBS opponent with a winning record — would serve as a nice résumé-builder. I think he gets it.

Penn State: 27
Nebraska: 21

Greg Pickel (Season Record: 7-3)

Penn State will honor 30-plus seniors before its final regular season game at Beaver Stadium in 2025. The Nittany Lions are a 9.5-point favorite at BetMGM for their matchup with Nebraska. Admittedly, that number feels a bit high.

This game will feature a slow pace and lots of handoffs. That should make either team winning in blowout fashion unlikely. Nebraska running back Emmett Johnson and the PSU duo of Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton will be the best players on the field. Back the home team to build a lead and hold onto it, with second-week Nebraska starter TJ Lateef throwing a fourth-quarter pick to deal the deal.

Penn State: 24
Nebraska: 20

Ryan Snyder (Season Record: 7-3)

Penn State comes into Saturday night’s game against Nebraska as a 9.5-point favorite. Penn State’s ability to get the ground game going in recent weeks is a major reason why, as they’ll now face a Nebraska defense that’s allowing five yards per rush this season, which is ranked No. 119 nationally.

Their pass defense has been much better, with Nebraska limiting its opponents to just 142.1 yards per game this season, which is ranked third in FBS . However, when you dig into their schedule, you’ll notice that the Cornhuskers played a Cincinnati squad that’s ranked No. 112 in completion percentage. Northwestern, Michigan and Michigan State are ranked No. 122, No. 101 and No. 89, respectively, in yards per game. They also played a  Minnesota squad that’s ranked No. 127 in yards per pass. Give them credit for limiting USC’s passing attack to just 135 yards, but I still think Nebraska’s defensive passing stats are a bit skewed when you look at the opponents. 

Now, do I think Ethan Grunkemeyer is going to throw for 250 yards and three touchdowns? I don’t, but I do think a similar game plan to last weekend will work at home against Nebraska. If Grunk can hit a few longer passes like we saw against Indiana and Michigan State, it should help open up the ground game. Kaytron Allen will lead in carries, but look for Nick Singleton to find some space like he did against the Hoosiers.

Penn State: 27
Nebraska: 20