Penn State-Ohio State predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

Penn State was favored by double digits before its first six games of the 2023 season. Now, the unbeaten and No. 7 Nittany Lions are an underdog for the first time. No. 3 Ohio State is a 4.5-point favorite with a betting total of 45.5 points for Saturday’s Noon ET meeting with the Buckeyes on FOX. So far this week, James Franklin has liked his team’s preparation.

“We got some guys that, if we didn’t have really good depth and really good health, would be playing for us right now in a in a top 10 program as true freshmen,” he said Wednesday night. “So, the fact that those guys are not full time, maybe on the [developmental] squad but they’re rotating back and forth, it’s been really good. It’s been really competitive. There’s some guys that maybe weren’t ready at the beginning of the season that I think are more ready now. At least, physically.

“And the way they’re practicing and competing, it forces our guys to come to work every single day. And, the more days we can put together like that, especially on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, it gives us the best chance to prepare for what the speed and the violence is going to be like on Saturday. Combine that with the good on good periods we have as well. I think it’s the best way to give us a chance to be prepared on Saturday and play well.”

Can Penn State pull off the upset? Here’s how local and national experts plus computer models pick the game.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Ohio State

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 27-22 Ohio State victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to lose but cover with a final score of OSU 25, PSU 23.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Buckeyes winning 26-22.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions just a 36.6 percent chance of winning.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 1.5-point margin of victory for Penn State and an under call with a total points projection of 41.

Lions-Buckeyes picks from a national perspective

At the Sporting News, Bill Bender predicts an Ohio State win and cover by a 28-21 margin.

“The Nittany Lions will be a popular upset pick this week – because this is their best chance to win at Ohio Stadium under James Franklin,” Bender writes. “Penn State’s defense is second in the FBS in scoring defense (8.0) and turnover margin. The key will be sophomore quarterback Drew Allar. Will he make enough key plays in the passing game?

“Ohio State is third in scoring defense (9.7), and Kyle McCord already has a top-10 victory under his belt. Ohio State coach Ryan Day is 4-0 against the Nittany Lions, and they have won those games by an average of 11.5 points per game. Get ready for an instant classic.”

National college football writer Bruce Feldman of The Athletic picks a 21-20 Ohio State win over Penn State.

Geoff Schwartz of FOX Sports has it 26-22 Ohio State.

“This game is an Under for me, with two teams that limit explosive plays on defense and one (Penn State) that can’t move the ball without dinking-and-dunking down the field,” Schwartz writes.

“Ohio State’s defense is much improved. It is second in explosive play rate and very good on third down. It has yet to allow anyone to score more than 17 points. Penn State’s defense is second in points per drive and seventh in explosive play rate. Both of these teams thrive on defense.”

At College Football News, Pete Fiutak picks a 23-20 OSU triumph.

Penn State-Ohio State picks from a local perspective

At PennLive, four of its five regular pickers have Penn State coming out on top. Three analysts from its sister sister which covers the Buckeyes, Cleveland.com, have Ohio State winning the game.

For The Athletic, Penn State writer Audrey Snyder calls for 28-24 Lions win. Cameron Teague, who covers the Buckeyes, sees a 17-14 win for the home side.

“I think Penn State has closed the gap,” Snyder writes. “All offseason, I’ve been saying and writing that this year and next offers Penn State’s best chance to strike. I predicted Penn State to go 11-1 with a loss to Michigan in the preseason, and I’m sticking by it. Allar will step up in a few key moments, but more importantly, this is a superb defense that tilts this one in the Nittany Lions’ favor.”

The Daily Collegian’s staff of four pickers are split on the game outcome, with two siding with the Lions and two with the Buckeyes. All four envision a Penn State cover, though.

How does the Blue-White Illustrated staff pick the game?

Nate Bauer: Penn State 26, Ohio State 23
Sean Fitz: PSU 24, OSU 21
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 27, Ohio State 24
Matt Herb: OSU 28, PSU 20
Greg Pickel: Ohio State 21, Penn State 17
Ryan Snyder: PSU 23, OSU 21