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Penn State-Oregon picks: Early predictions love one side of the total; are they lopsided on who will win, too?

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel12/06/24GregPickel
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Early predictions are in from around the country ahead of Saturday’s Big Ten title game tilt between No. 1 Oregon and No. 3 Penn State. Public betting percentages posted by The Action Network indicate that all of the money at this stage is on the Ducks as a 3.5-point favorite and the over with a 50.5 total currently listed. But, a sampling of media picks from around the country suggests things might even out as kickoff approaches.

For NBC Sports, Eric Froton thinks there is value in backing the Nittany Lions to win the game outright at moneyline odds of around +150.

“Wisconsin just took Oregon to the limit in a 16-13 nailbiter, while Penn State escaped with a one-point victory over Minnesota two weeks ago,” he writes. “With these two teams pretty closely matched in my opinion, and PSU very much in play on a neutral site field, I think the value is on Penn State on the moneyline for a tidy +150 return.”

At CBS Sports, Tom Fornelli does not make a call on the total but is backing Oregon at -3.5.

“I’m betting on Oregon, but I do not think Oregon will blow Penn State out,” he writes. “While this spread may be a surprise to many of you, it isn’t to me. Penn State is good. Do not let its inability to beat Ohio State fool you in that regard. That said, while these teams are evenly matched in most areas, Oregon is vastly superior at the receiver position. One or two plays from Oregon receivers could prove to be the difference here.”

Here’s how the Blue-White Illustrated staff is picking Penn State-Oregon

Adam Burke of the Vegas Sports and Information Network is one of the many pundits who like the Ducks and the under.

“To their credit, Penn State’s defense has only allowed 11 passing touchdowns, as the teams rank seventh and eighth in total pass defense,” Burke writes.

“Aside from that, this is a game to me where Oregon just does everything a little bit better. And that includes the head coach. But, I do think this is a physical, slug-it-out type of game with limited explosive plays.”

At The Washington Post, Matt Bonesteel is calling for the under in what he calls the game of conference championship weekend.

“Both the Ducks and Nittany Lions feature strong defenses and offenses that are lacking in explosiveness,” he writes. “There’s also the fact that both of these teams probably will qualify for the College Football Playoff, which means both coaches may play things even more conservatively than they already do. I can see this one being a low-scoring affair.”

On3 national college football reporters Andy Staples and Ari Wasserman both pick the Ducks to cover.

“I’m intrigued by the James Franklin who has emerged since the final series of the Minnesota game,” Staples writes. “That James Franklin is faking punts, going for it on other fourth downs, throwing and scoring with the third-teamers in the game. Is the Franklin daredevil/heel turn what was needed to make Penn State capable of winning a big game like this one? The only problem is he’s facing Dan Lanning, who adopted that mindset the day he became a head coach. This could be a fun one.”

Check back to Blue-White Illustrated Saturday morning for a full roundup of picks from local and national media personalities and reporters.

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