Skip to main content
Penn State

Penn State postseason projections: Where are the Lions in new CFP brackets before Oregon?

Greg Pickelby: Greg Pickel09/23/25GregPickel
james-franklin-penn-states-white-out-drew-allar-growth-more
Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. (Credit: Frank Hyatt | Blue White Illustrated)

Penn State is still the No. 2 team in the country following its bye week. Where the Lions go in the rankings next will be determined by their matchup with No. 6 Oregon. That is this Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC, of course. For now, head coach James Franklin’s team is seen as one of the top teams in the country following a 3-0 start. But, that does not mean its guaranteed to get a College Football Playoff bye, according to the latest national media postseason projections.

Starting with On3, Andy Staples has Penn State as the No. 6 seed. That means it would host No. 11 Texas A&M in the first round at Beaver Stadium. The winner of that game would then face Staples’ No. 3 seed, Indiana. Brett McMurphy, meanwhile, also has the Lions hosting the Aggies, albeit in a Nos. 8 vs. 9 matchup. He then has PSU exiting the postseason by losing to No. 1 Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

For ESPN, Heather Dinich’s latest bracket puts Penn State at No. 9. That means it would travel to No. 8 Oregon for a rematch of this Saturday’s White Out game in the first round.

More: Penn State White Out Week Thoughts: Kaytron, Kaytron, Kaytron… (and Nick)

“Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions,” Dinich writes. “ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.”

Also at ESPN, Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach have differing views about the Lions’ long-term outlook in their latest postseason projects. They do both have Penn State going out in the quarterfinals, however. Schlabach has PSU beating No. 11 Indiana as the No. 6 seed before losing to No. 3 Georgia. Bonagura has the Lions getting a bye as the No. 4 seed but losing to No. 5 LSU in the quarters.

Finally, for The Athletic, Austin Mock’s data-driven most likely bracket after Week 4 has Penn State getting a bye as the No. 4 seed. That would set it up to face the winner of a first round matchup between No. 5 Oregon and No. 12 Tulane in the quarterfinals.