Penn State-Rutgers Matchups: Who will have the edge when the Lions and Scarlet Knights joust?

By Greg Pickel

A Big Ten East clash is set for Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Penn State meets Rutgers (6-4) for Senior Day in State College. Kickoff is set for Noon ET on FS1. Both teams are coming off a loss. The Scarlet Knights are trending worse, however, as they’ve dropped two straight contests.

“They run as well as any defense I’ve seen in a long time,” Scarlet Knights coach Greg Schiano said Monday. “Their front runs. Their defensive ends run as well as most team’s safeties. They really have an unusual group of talent there this year. So, big challenge. Certainly have our hands full. Working hard to try to figure it out.”

On the Penn State offense, Schiano said:

“They are all good coaches. They will have a great plan put together, I’m sure. You know, when you look at their personnel, that’s what I know. They have got two elite running backs, really, really good running backs, a very good offensive line with an elite tackle. They have two or three depending on who is judging, I think, great tight ends. A young quarterback who is as acclaimed as they come and receivers who are definitely on the up. So yeah, they are a very complete football team. I’ve said it, I think they have a lot of pieces in place there.”

Who will have the edge on Saturday? Here’s a look at he matchups.

When Penn State is on offense

Before giving up 400 yards at Iowa last week, Rutgers had one of the Big Ten’s best statistical defenses. It is better against the run than the pass, which should make the Scarlet Knights the latest Penn State foe who will try to force Drew Allar to beat it. RU does not rush the passer very well. So, the second-year Nittany Lion should work from a clean pocket more often than not. This section is more difficult to write this week than it has been in prior ones. What will the Lions offense look like? We don’t even know at the moment how the play calling structure will work. Could Ja’Juan Seider and Ty Howle drastically change how Penn State attacks its opponents? That feels unlikely at this juncture of the season. But, even the slightest tweaks could unlock some things that Mike Yurcich could not.

All told, when all else fails, we side with the team that will put the better athletes on the field. That is Penn State. But, this defense is no push over. Last week’s performance aside, it is pretty gap-sound and does not make a bunch of mistakes. So, a slow start won’t be a shock. The Lions may need time to get into a rhythm and solve the Scarlet Knights defense. It will at some point on the path to victory. How it goes about doing so, though, is anyone’s guess at this juncture.

EDGE: Penn State

When the Lions are on defense

This space believes in efficiency. It also believes in giving you, the reader, as much information as possible. So, while tempting, we will avoid simply noting that Rutgers was just shut out at Iowa before moving on with our day. That said, the team’s performance in that loss is indicative of what should be expected on Saturday. The Scarlet Knights offense, which is led by former Penn State coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, wants to win on the ground. Its star running back, Kyle Monangai, is dealing with an injury that could impact his status for Saturday. Schiano was coy about that back on Monday. If the Big Ten’s leading rusher is out or limited, it will further hinder an attack that does a fine job of getting in its own way anyway.

Rutgers has one of the least efficient offenses in the Big Ten. It cannot typically lean on explosive plays to overcome that. Its passing attack leaves lots to be desired. And the backs behind Monangai have not done much with the few chances they’ve been given this year. Expect Scarlet Knights quarterback Gavin Wimsatt to be pressured early and often and for Rutgers to do plenty of punting on Saturday.

EDGE: Penn State

Odds and ends

–Rutgers is in the lower third of the FBS in third down defense. We’ve talked endlessly about how much that is a problem area for the Penn State offense. Can they remedy that this week?

–Unlike past years, the Scarlet Knights do not have a hammer at punter. Per CFBStats.con, Flynn Appleby is 82nd out of 90 qualified punters with a per punt average of just 39.67 yards.

–Jai Patel is 11 of 13 on field goal tries this season. Rutgers has the fewest kickoff returns in the Big Ten with just three. It only has six punt returns. But, one of them went for a touchdown.

Final word on Penn State-Rutgers

We know Penn State has made a change on offense. We’re also aware of how sluggish the team can be at times after a loss. But, there is no reason for this contest to be close for four quarters. Rutgers may get some stops early. But, its defense should eventually wilt from being on the field too often thanks to its poor offense. Even if the Lions start slow, they will have every chance to kick away in the third quarter, at the latest, before getting the backups valuable reps at some point in the second half.