Penn State-Rutgers predictions: How college football experts, computer data systems are picking the game

No. 12 Penn State is a double-digit favorite for its last home game of the year. The Nittany Lions are giving Rutgers 20.5 points at sports books across the country ahead of today’s meeting with the Scarlet Knights. The Senior Day tilt has a total of 42.5. And, it’s set for Noon ET at Beaver Stadium on FS1 (Note: Live stream on Fubo! with this limited time offer: $40 off Fubo’s Pro, Elite and Premier plans by clicking here!).

“I hope it’s a great environment, [and] I hope the fans show their appreciation for all the hard work that these guys have put in representing the university the right way both on and off the field,” Lions coach James Franklin said Wednesday night. “So, yeah, I would love for them to get a feel for the sense of appreciation that we have for them. Play well, get a win, all those things included.”

Here’s how local and national experts plus computer data systems are picking the game.

Computer model picks for Penn State-Rutgers

At ESPN, Bill Connelly’s SP+ model predicts a 33-11 Penn State victory.

Over at Sports Line, the Lions are projected to win and cover, 35-10.

The Athletic’s XMOV model from Austin Mock has the Lions winning and covering with a 30-9 final.

ESPN’s FPI gives the Lions a 94.1 percent chance of winning.

And, The Dunkle Index projects a 25-point margin of victory for Penn State and an under call with a total points projection of 39.

How are national writers picking the game?

At Sporting News, Bill Bender calls for a Penn State win and cover by a final score of 31-10.

“This is a tough line to read. Penn State is coming off a deflating loss to Michigan – one that knocked the Nittany Lions out of the Big Ten East championship race,” Bender writes. “Offensive coordinator Mike Yurich was fired, too. Rutgers managed just 16 points in losses to Ohio State and Iowa, and the Nittany Lions are just as good on that side of the ball. The Scarlet Knights have scored 10 points or less in the last nine meetings against the Nittany Lions. This will be tight, but trust the Nittany Lions to bounce back.”

For College Football News, Pete Fiutak picks the Lions to win 34-13.

“Oh yeah, the Penn State defense,” he writes. “Michigan might have run well and effectively last week, but that’s hardly the norm against this bunch. The Penn State run defense continues to be among the best in the country – last week was the first time it allowed more than four yards per carry.

“Rutgers can’t win without running well. Its 0-3 when it can’t get to 100 yards, and it’ll have a hard time getting there as the Nittany Lions get over last week fast on Senior Day.”

What do local beat writers think of the Lions-Scarlet Knights game?

At PennLive, its five regular pickers all agree that Penn State will win. But, only three of them see a Nittany Lions cover on the horizon. Guest picker Steve Politi of NJ.com envisions a 30-7 Lions triumph.

“Rutgers knew from the moment this schedule was released that this would be the most grueling stretch of the season, and I wonder if the physical toll of facing two of the best defenses in the country in back-to-back weeks has worn the Scarlet Knights down to the point where it is too much to expect a competitive game this week,” Politi writes. “We saw signs of that happening in the fourth quarter against Iowa, and Greg Schiano believes the Penn State D is even better. That doesn’t bode well for an offense that gained just 127 yards in Iowa City.”

At Sports Illustrated, both Max Ralph and Mark Wogenrich pick the Lions to win. But, the former thinks Rutgers covers while the latter believes Penn State will.

“Rutgers hasn’t scored more than 10 points in nine Big Ten games against Penn State,” Wogenrich writes. “It has scored four touchdowns in those nine games. And this offense isn’t any better, so scoring isn’t the issue. Yet Rutgers has a compelling defense, Schiano’s wheelhouse, that will bring some fight. The focus will be squarely on Penn State’s offense and how it responds to a season of disappointment and a week of change. Expect an uneven game as part of a fresh start. There might even be a big play or two.”

Frank Bodani of the York Daily Record has it 30-10 in favor of Saturday’s home team. And, the staff at The Daily Collegian are split on a cover but all see the Lions leaving Beaver Stadium victorious.

How is the BWI staff picking Penn State-Rutgers?

Nate Bauer: Penn State 20, Rutgers 17
Sean Fitz: PSU 26, Rutgers 6
Thomas Frank Carr: Penn State 24, Rutgers 17
Matt Herb: PSU 27, Rutgers 14
Greg Pickel: PSU 40, Rutgers 3
Ryan Snyder: PSU 31, Rutgers 10