Penn State win total picks: What will the Lions' regular season record be in 2025? The BWI staff weighs in

Penn State football enters the 2025 season with its best outlook in years. The Nittany Lions are No. 2 in the Associated Press top 25. That’s their highest preseason ranking in it since 1997. James Franklin’s team is also No. 3 in the USA Today Coaches Poll. His team’s regular season win total at BetMGM is 10.5. Will the Lions go over that number by being 11-1 or 12-0? Or will they fall below it at 10-2 or worse? The Blue-White Illustrated staff weighs in below with our annual regular season record predictions.

Nate Bauer: Penn State will go 10-2

A year ago, Penn State faced Ohio State at Beaver Stadium and avoided Oregon during the regular season. This year, the Nittany Lions must travel to Columbus, and they’ll play the defending Big Ten champion Ducks in their conference opener (albeit in State College). The Lions fell to both of those teams last year, struggling on offense in a 20-13 loss to Ohio State and dropping a 45-37 shootout to Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.

This year offers new hope. A win at the Horseshoe is unlikely but possible. A victory over Oregon is definitely possible, with the Ducks having to head east for a prime-time White Out. The bad news is that the rest of the schedule is littered with too many landmines for PSU to emerge unscathed. USC and Minnesota were near-misses last year. UCLA and Iowa could be the same this year. Nebraska and Indiana
won’t be easy, either. The best news for Penn State is that it’s following the Buckeyes’ championship blueprint. Losing a couple of regular-season games would set up a much-needed break during the week of the Big Ten Championship Game while still assuring a CFP berth and a shot at a national title.

For a team being treated this preseason as more of a powerhouse than it has demonstrated itself to be, this is the most viable path to the mountaintop.

T-Frank Carr: The Nittany Lions will go unbeaten

Penn State has the best setup for its 2025 schedule that it could have possibly hoped for. The Nittany Lions get defending Big Ten champion Oregon after a month-long warmup, at home and in a prime-time White Out. The Ducks will be replacing most of their defense and breaking in a new quarterback on
the road. Penn State has to travel to Columbus this year, which is no doubt a place where other postseason chances have gone to die.

Yet in this instance, the Nittany Lions will have two months to study new Ohio State coordinators
Brian Hartline and Matt Patricia to understand the team’s tendencies. Penn State has a senior quarterback, and most of its offense is back. In addition, it has brought in the nation’s top defensive coordinator, Jim Knowles, to help shore up a good but uneven unit from last year. This is the year Penn State gets it done.

Sean Fitz: Penn State will go 11-1

Both hopes and expectations have aligned for Penn State in 2025, as the Nittany Lions’ retention efforts after a final four run last season have led to one of the nation’s most talented rosters. There are still some holes – this is college football after all – but James Franklin’s squad is primed to be favored in every matchup but one heading into the season. A sour taste from the way the last one ended shouldn’t hurt, either.

What’s interesting about this team is that it may be the offense that will carry the Nittany Lions this time around. Penn State’s defense is still good. Jim Knowles seems to be an upgrade from Tom Allen calling the plays. But depth questions on that side of the ball will have to be ironed out over what could be a long season. Buoyed by what will likely be one of the nation’s top rushing attacks, Penn State should be able to put up points. If the remodeled receivers room can provide some level of output for Drew Allar, the Nittany Lions should be in great shape.

Though I have the Nittany Lions falling to Ohio State in Columbus in November, the window for a run at a possible national title is open in 2025.

‘Eternal skeptic’ Matt Herb has the Lions at 11-1, too

There’s so much to like about Penn State this year. This is surely the best offense James Franklin has assembled during his tenure with the program. The Nittany Lions have their strongest line, their deepest backfield and their most draft-worthy quarterback since Franklin took over in 2014. Also, Penn State loaded up at wide receiver in the offseason, improving its odds of success by bringing in three players with demonstrated productivity at their previous schools. Even at tight end, the position group that suffered the offense’s biggest loss with Tyler Warren now in the NFL, this team boasts an abundance of
talented prospects waiting for their moment in the spotlight.

There are bigger concerns on defense, particularly in the middle, with the Nittany Lions looking a bit thin at tackle and linebacker. But the secondary should be a strength. And, first-year coordinator Jim Knowles has gotten results everywhere he’s been. Luring him from Ohio State was one of Franklin’s bigger coups since arriving at PSU. As an eternal skeptic, it’s constitutionally difficult for me to pick Penn State to go 11-1. Not only would a one-loss regular season require a victory over either Oregon or Ohio State, it would also require the Nittany Lions to avoid slipping up anywhere else on a schedule that is loaded with the kind of conference opponents (Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, etc.) that are capable of surprising an unwary favorite.

Still, looking at the talent PSU has assembled, particularly on offense, an 11-win finish (with that lone loss coming in Columbus) seems within reach.

Greg Pickel: Penn State will go over its win total, finish 11-1

There have been many preseasons during the James Franklin era in which fans and pundits based their expectations on an assessment of how many games Penn State would lose. The idea of a season without any setbacks was a nonstarter.

The calculation is different this time around. PSU enters its 2025 campaign with a tremendous path to not only make the College Football Playoff but to potentially do so as the undefeated champion of the Big Ten. A strong returning cast combined with a few key transfer portal pickups make this as formidable a roster as Franklin has assembled in State College.

If the Lions can beat Oregon at home on Sept. 27, a trip to Ohio State to start November will be what decides whether this team is 12-0 or 11-1 entering the postseason.

While Penn State now has Jim Knowles and more experience than the Buckeyes, we’ll need to see a win at the Horseshoe to believe it. It’s not impossible, but it’s more likely that the Lions will end up with a blemish before the postseason.

In 2025, that is no longer the impediment it once was.

Ryan Snyder: The Lions will go 11-1

You have to go back to 1999 to find the last time Penn State entered a season with the kind of expectations that it will face this year. But unlike in ’99 when the Nittany Lions played six ranked opponents, this year’s schedule is pretty cut and dry. Oregon and Ohio State are far and away the top two teams on the slate.

BetMGM currently has Penn State as a small favorite at home against the Ducks and a small underdog against the Buckeyes in Columbus. I think that makes sense. A trip to lowa looks tricky on paper. But, I have Nebraska circled as the team that could offer the opportunity for another ranked win.

I think 11-1 is realistic this year. That would get PSU into the Big Ten Championship Game to play for a bye week in the College Football Playoff.